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Economy

Quemado

(1,262 posts)

5. Reliable recession predictor

Reply to we can do it (Reply #3)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 05:38 AM

Aug 2019

Yield curve inversions “predicted 7 out of 9 recessions during the post-war period. This is a track record any economist would be proud of,” wrote Sung Won Sohn, professor of economics at Loyola Marymount University and president of SS Economics. “If the inversion started today, the economy could be in a recession within a year.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/us-bonds-yield-curve-at-flattest-level-since-2007-amid-risk-off-sentiment.html

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Bloomberg radio reporting T-bill inversion [View all] nitpicker Aug 2019 OP

CNBC confirming nitpicker Aug 2019 #1

Link -- progree Aug 2019 #9

Not just the US either. Inverted yield curve in Europe also still_one Aug 2019 #2

Can you explain why this is important? we can do it Aug 2019 #3

Reliable recession predictor Quemado Aug 2019 #5

I believe the definition of a recession is, decline in growth of G.N.P. of 18 month. Depression, 36 3Hotdogs Aug 2019 #6

How an economic decline that begins now would affect the election would depend on a lot a factors. Quemado Aug 2019 #7

It is seen as a lack of confidence BeyondGeography Aug 2019 #8

This message was self-deleted by its author Quemado Aug 2019 #4

Dow tumbles 400 points after bond market flashes a recession warning mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2019 #10