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progree

(13,072 posts)
19. The market did dive: the S&P 500 declined 33.9% from February 19 to March 23
Tue Aug 11, 2020, 08:25 AM
Aug 2020

But the Fed cut interest rates to zero and began virtually unlimited money creation and lending to corporations. Meanwhile deficit-tripling spending began. Enough to substantially boost personal income in Q2 2020 by 10.1% compared to Q2 2019 - far in excess of inflation and population growth. A very substantial real increase.

Details of the graph's and numbers' sources are in post#9



I borrowed this from at140 (Trasury?)


Result: market back up.

Despite a nose-dive in earnings:

Q1 S&P 500 Earnings per share:
2017 Q1: 27.46,
2018 Q1: 33.02,
2019 Q1: 35.02,
2020 Q1: 11.88 👀 😲
https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_eps

We don't have the full Q2 earnings yet. But likely to be a lot worse, given that Q1 GDP declined by 5%, and Q2 GDP declined by 32.9% (both on an annualized rate basis. The actual GDP drops were Q1: 1.3%, Q2: 9.5%). So it would be pretty much impossible for Q2 earnings to be anything but a lot worse than Q1 earnings.


Ahh, if it were only sustainable. Ahh, if only chapter 3, where all the unsustainable stimulus is eventually and inevitably dialed back, proceeded as nicely as chapter 2 (the great-stimulus phase). Ahh, if only P/E ratios really didn't matter anymore.

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My tinfoil hat theory.. cilla4progress Aug 2020 #1
Well, one thing no one has mentioned is that the Market is looking forward to a big Biden victory. Hoyt Aug 2020 #2
Answer: $6 Trillion Bailout OneBro Aug 2020 #3
Look at the composition of the indexes Abnredleg Aug 2020 #4
The strong Dow seems to be mainly a handful of stocks, as I understand it. PoindexterOglethorpe Aug 2020 #5
I have taken some out, the rest RazzleCat Aug 2020 #13
Sounds like you're doing it the right way. PoindexterOglethorpe Aug 2020 #14
The Market is a rich person's game. iemitsu Aug 2020 #6
Which is why I "piggyback" on the market. Rich people's interests always prevail. Midnight Writer Aug 2020 #8
Seems that way, doesn't it. iemitsu Aug 2020 #12
If you think of it that way, if you think the only thing to do is to "play" PoindexterOglethorpe Aug 2020 #15
Capitalists have a ton of money. Laelth Aug 2020 #7
Personal income was up 7.3% in the 2nd quarter, and up 10.1% over Q2 2019 progree Aug 2020 #9
There is no place else to put money. Banks and bonds doc03 Aug 2020 #10
The market always eventually comes back, umm, it took 16 years for the Dow to get back to progree Aug 2020 #11
Here's a link to an interesting article about the Dow 1966-1982. PoindexterOglethorpe Aug 2020 #16
Most people don't own the entire market. They own individual stocks and/or several mutual progree Aug 2020 #17
The market has not nose dived yet because there is no reason for it to nose dive. PoindexterOglethorpe Aug 2020 #18
The market did dive: the S&P 500 declined 33.9% from February 19 to March 23 progree Aug 2020 #19
Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Economy»I am so confused, I get t...»Reply #19