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Environment & Energy
In reply to the discussion: Do you believe in climate change? [View all]OKIsItJustMe
(21,875 posts)24. Because global scale changes take time, and the greenhouse effect is relatively subtle
I dont see your point.
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5775
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WW: Some scientists have argued that we have already reached tipping points in some regions of the world. Do you agree? If so, what are they and can we avoid them?
JH: We need to distinguish tipping level and the point of no return, as explained in our new Target CO2 paper. The tipping level is the level of greenhouse gases that will lead to large, undesirable, even disastrous, effects. We have reached the tipping level for several important effects. That is why we must go back in CO2 amounts at least to 350 ppm and possibly lower. The point of no return is when the dynamics of the process take over and it is out of our control, we cannot stop it, e.g., the ice sheet from disintegrating, because of positive feedback and warming in the pipeline. Some phenomena have enough inertia that we can afford some overshoot of the safe CO2 level, provided that we get back to a lower amount fast enough. The ice sheets and sea level may be in that category. Unfortunately, Arctic sea ice has reached the point where we are going to lose all of the warm season ice within the next few decades.
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WW: Some scientists have argued that we have already reached tipping points in some regions of the world. Do you agree? If so, what are they and can we avoid them?
JH: We need to distinguish tipping level and the point of no return, as explained in our new Target CO2 paper. The tipping level is the level of greenhouse gases that will lead to large, undesirable, even disastrous, effects. We have reached the tipping level for several important effects. That is why we must go back in CO2 amounts at least to 350 ppm and possibly lower. The point of no return is when the dynamics of the process take over and it is out of our control, we cannot stop it, e.g., the ice sheet from disintegrating, because of positive feedback and warming in the pipeline. Some phenomena have enough inertia that we can afford some overshoot of the safe CO2 level, provided that we get back to a lower amount fast enough. The ice sheets and sea level may be in that category. Unfortunately, Arctic sea ice has reached the point where we are going to lose all of the warm season ice within the next few decades.
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The excess CO[font size="1"]2[/font] which is currently in the atmosphere will continue to trap heat, and the Earth will continue to warm, until (presumably) a new equilibrium is established.
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120127_CowardsPart1.pdf
[font face=Times, Times New Roman, Serif][font size=3]Global warming due to human-made gases, mainly CO[font size="1"]2[/font], is already 0.8°C and deleterious climate impacts are growing worldwide. More warming is "in the pipeline" because Earth is out of energy balance, with absorbed solar energy exceeding planetary heat radiation. Maintaining a climate that resembles the Holocene, the world of stable shorelines in which civilization developed, requires rapidly reducing fossil fuel CO[font size="1"]2[/font] emissions. Such a scenario is economically sensible and has multiple benefits for humanity and other species. Yet fossil fuel extraction is expanding, including highly carbon-intensive sources that can push the climate system beyond tipping points such that amplifying feedbacks drive further climate change that is practically out of humanity's control. This situation raises profound moral issues as young people, future generations, and nature, with no possibility of protecting their future well-being, will bear the principal consequences of actions and inactions of today's adults.[/font][/font]
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Climate change over time has been the norm for the entire history of the Earth
slackmaster
Mar 2012
#3
I don't deny anthropogenic climate change, but I think I see it a little differently than some
slackmaster
Mar 2012
#22
I believe it's happening, as predicted by the military decades ago and that we must prepare for it.
freshwest
Mar 2012
#4
Terrible question;"Do you believe in ghosts?" "Do you believe in magic?" "Do you believe in love?"
hatrack
Mar 2012
#9
Because global scale changes take time, and the greenhouse effect is relatively subtle
OKIsItJustMe
Mar 2012
#24