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NickB79

(20,370 posts)
3. We do not have nearly enough capital or resources for what's coming in this century
Fri Dec 2, 2016, 05:58 PM
Dec 2016

For example, this little jem: http://phys.org/news/2016-11-west-antarctic-ice-shelf.html

Studies have suggested that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is particularly unstable, and could collapse within the next 100 years. The collapse would lead to a sea-level rise of nearly 10 feet, which would engulf major U.S. cities such as New York and Miami and displace 150 million people living on coasts worldwide.


Think about that for a minute. Imagine all the major coastal cities of the world facing sea level rises of this magnitude. Now imagine trying to either build dikes around them, or evacuate hundreds of millions of people. You can't build effective dikes fast enough and strong enough to protect even a fraction of the world's coastal cities, especially those prone to storm surges when hurricanes and typhoons strike. We will be forced to pick and choose which we keep, and which we surrender. Moving hundreds of millions of people is guaranteed to cause massive social impacts, most of them very, very bad: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/01/climate-change-trigger-unimaginable-refugee-crisis-senior-military

“Climate change is the greatest security threat of the 21st century,” said Maj Gen Munir Muniruzzaman, chairman of the Global Military Advisory Council on climate change and a former military adviser to the president of Bangladesh. He said one metre of sea level rise will flood 20% of his nation. “We’re going to see refugee problems on an unimaginable scale, potentially above 30 million people.”


Now think about how this would impact the global economy, once we lose major shipping terminals to rising seas. We can rebuild some on higher ground, but that takes time and money, and must be started before the seas start rising too rapidly to keep up. IE, right now, but we aren't even close to doing so. Without those terminals, grain grown in the US sits in place, unable to be shipped and rotting in silos, or in fields, putting farmers out of business. Oil terminals and refineries near shorelines shut down, so fuel supplies are disrupted globally. Food shortages in some parts of the world; shortages of raw materials or finished goods in others. We are a global economy now; without cheap cargo ship transport it all collapses.

Now throw in extreme weather destroying crops in places like Europe and America. Forest fires raging as temps spike, rain falters and insects attack. Droughts hitting drinking water and hydropower facilities. Spread of tropical diseases like we're now seeing with Zika.

And the Third World countries that are hit the hardest first will become breeding grounds for terrorism against the developed nations, wasting even more precious capital and resources fighting them off (look at the billions we squandered in Iraq and Afghanistan so far, with more to come now that President Agent Orange is in the White House).

No, we do not have nearly enough to weather what's coming our way. Not even close.

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