New Record Weekly High For CO2 Measurements at Mauna Loa.

[NNadir]

3. This year is shaping up to look a lot like 2015 and 2016.

In 2015, the worst year ever recorded at Mauna Loa, carbon dioxide concentrations rose by 3.05 ppm over 2014. Despite this fact, very few of the weekly year to year measurements of increase were all that dramatic; none appeared in the top 50.

This is an artifact of the fact that the carbon dioxide cycle is not tied to what the situation is on January 1 of a given year; as you correctly note, the peaks come in the May, June time frame.

The annual figures announced at Mauna Loa are a running average, if I recall, are a running average of the months of December and January.

A measurement of the weekly year to year increases (or as are not likely to be seen ever again in our lifetimes, decreases) of 3.05 ppm would be around the 150th highest ever recorded.

The 50th highest ever recorded, as of this writing - sure to change in 2019 - is 3.62 ppm, measured for the week beginning November 17, 2016.

For the week beginning February 8, 2015, the weekly average was at 399.93 ppm. In 2015, the peak measurement was observed in the week beginning May 17, 2015, when the value was 403.95 ppm, just about 4 ppm over the February figure.

That suggests that this year we might well see figures around 416 ppm, if 2019 runs the same as 2015. Of course the conditional clause might be called "optimism."

Twenty-three of the top 50 weekly year to year increases took place in 2016, including the record, 5.04 ppm, measured for the week beginning July 31, 2016.

For the week beginning February 7, 2016, the measurement was 403.76 ppm. The peak for that year was unusually early, and occurred in the week beginning April 10, 2016, and was 408.69 ppm. This less optimistic outcome suggests that we might, as things are getting worse, not better, a value approaching 418 ppm in 2019.

2015 was the last year that anyone now living - and this includes Bill McKibben who does his share by driving a Prius - will ever see a value lower than 400 ppm. It was measured for the week beginning November 1, 2015, at 399.06 ppm.

I guess it is "fascinating" in the sense that the molecular biology of a metastatic cancer cell in a terminally ill human being is fascinating.

Speaking only for myself, I'd rather be bored to death by stability.

Thanks for asking.