Deloitte: Utility "Decarbonization" Not Even Close w/o Big NG Cuts, Large-Scale Grid Integration [View all]

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U.S. utilities can’t reach their ambitious decarbonization goals unless they reduce their planned reliance on natural gas, find ways to “baseload” solar and wind power with long-duration storage or substitute zero-carbon fuels, and radically expand energy efficiency, demand response and the power and flexibility of customer-owned distributed energy resources.

So says a new report from Deloitte highlighting the known, yet often underappreciated, challenges faced by utilities across the country promising to zero out their carbon impact by midcentury. “The math doesn’t yet add up,” the report finds, citing “significant gaps” between the decarbonization targets of major utilities and their current plans for retiring fossil-fuel plants.

That’s not news to those who’ve been closely tracking plans to reach net-zero carbon from major U.S. utilities such as Duke Energy, Dominion Energy, Southern Company and Xcel Energy. Each still plans to build new natural-gas power plants in the near term, despite the additional emissions they will cause. And each relies on as-yet-uneconomical technologies, such as long-duration energy storage, net-carbon-neutral fuels to replace fossil natural gas, and carbon capture and storage, to reach the final goal.

The U.S. electric grid relies on fossil fuels for 63 percent of its generation, and according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, current trends will reduce but not eliminate those emissions by 2050, the report states. To fix this, Deloitte suggests a three-stage approach, centered on technologies and approaches that will be cost-effective for the decade they’re targeted for — a vital consideration if decarbonization isn’t to lead to skyrocketing electricity costs and popular backlash. This chart indicates the carbon-abatement values of different technologies compared to replacing coal plants, indicating how utilities might want to stage their deployment over the next 30 years.

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https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/math-doesnt-yet-add-up-for-u.s-utility-decarbonization-goals