Why James Hansen Is Correct About Catastrophic U.S. Drought [View all]

[GliderGuider]

The article by Joe Romm is a very thorough evisceration of Martin Hoerling's attack on James Hansen in which Hoerling attempts to defuse Hansen's comments on the potential seriousness of American drought conditions in the coming decades. The article is worth reading in its entirety - it's complex and masterful.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/05/13/483247/james-hansen-is-correct-about-catastrophic-projections-for-us-drought-if-we-dont-act-now

James Hansen Is Correct About Catastrophic Projections For U.S. Drought If We Don’t Act Now

The response by NOAA’s Martin Hoerling to James Hansen’s recent op-ed (quote below) does not reflect the scientific literature.

“Over the next several decades, the Western United States and the semi-arid region from North Dakota to Texas will develop semi-permanent drought, with rain, when it does come, occurring in extreme events with heavy flooding. Economic losses would be incalculable. More and more of the Midwest would be a dust bowl. California’s Central Valley could no longer be irrigated. Food prices would rise to unprecedented levels.”

Dai’s analysis does indeed project drought conditions over the Great Plains and Midwest. He is in the process of revising his analysis, but the figure below (which had been his 2030s projection in his original version) is a rough representation of where his analysis projects things will be in Hansen’s time frame for the U.S.



The PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) in the Great Plains during the Dust Bowl apparently spiked very briefly to -6, but otherwise rarely exceeded -3 for the decade.