Study: 48-Hour Power Outage In Phoenix During Peak Heat Would Result In +/- 13,000 Deaths [View all]

[hatrack]

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The study’s researchers simulated what would happen if the residents of Phoenix, Atlanta and Detroit were struck by a heat wave and a complete blackout that lasts 48 hours before power starts to be incrementally restored. The outcomes were deadly in all three cities, but the results for Phoenix were particularly striking, where almost everyone in the city relies on air conditioning to weather extreme heat. The study predicted that about half the population would require emergency department care and about 13,000 would die.

“Phoenix has a resilient electrical grid, there’s no doubt about it,” Stone said. “But they really haven’t prepared sufficiently for that low-probability but very high-impact event.” Stone warned that climate change increases the likelihood of the nightmare scenario the paper examined. Heat waves are anticipated to become more intense, frequent and prolonged. Meanwhile, power grids will face increased demand for electricity during the summer months while being stressed by extreme weather, such as heat waves, hurricanes and wildfires.

Since 2015, the number of major blackouts — power outages lasting more than an hour and impacting more than 50,000 customers — have more than doubled, according to the study. Electric grid failures likely contributed to hundreds of deaths and thousands of emergency department visits during the historic 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave, the study said.

Ashley Ward, the director of the Heat Policy Innovation Hub at Duke University, said the study is “valuable” and captures the magnitude of the impact of heat. She noted that the study does not take into account humidity when estimating health outcomes, which she said could worsen the number of ER visits and deaths in Gulf Coast and Southeastern cities.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/13/phoenix-heat-wave-blackout/