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Otto_Harper

(822 posts)
4. I think it goes beyond political will to manufacturing capability
Sun Oct 22, 2023, 10:23 AM
Oct 2023

As a retired engineer, I have been a spectator to the development and implementation of disruptive technologies. As such, I have tried to stay current on the EV roll-out. The issue for the US is that we currently have a fleet of cars in this country which numbers about 250 million (+/-). In the current car market, we replace about 16 million (+/-) per year. That is the baseline manufacturing capacity that we start with. We cannot just double, triple or quadruple this manufacturing capacity instantly, regardless of political or economic will. The issue is not just factory capacity, but also raw materials. Replacing the entire US vehicle fleet will require more Lithium than the current proven world reserves of the material.
Yes, there is much more lithium to be found and developed, and more capacity can be built, but, this takes time. And, the current electrical infrastructure can not yet handle the charging load of a fleet this size, especially if we move to renewables, which is how the whole EV revolution will save us.
And so, all of the political will and haste will be of marginal value unless we approach this issue as the war for survival that it actually is. I don't see a whole lot of that outside of forums like this one.

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