Electricity Generation from Solar Could Exceed Coal in ERCOT for the First Time in 2026

[OKIsItJustMe]

8. Those graphs are from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (not the solar industry.)

In their “Net Zero” Scenario, the International Energy Association calls for "unabated fossil fuels” (i.e. coal & natural gas) to be used as a support for "variable renewables" (e.g. PV, Wind) for a while, however, "increasingly for flexibility and capacity adequacy" (i.e. those "fossil fuel" plants will be run “as needed" not "24/7/365.”)

IEA (2025), World Energy Outlook 2025, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2025, Licence: CC BY 4.0 (report); CC BY NC SA 4.0 (Annex A)

As variable renewables such as solar PV and wind account for a rising share of generation, dispatchable capacity plays a critical role to ensure electricity security. Long lead-times for nuclear limits its role in the near term, but installed nuclear capacity in the NZE Scenario increases 70% by 2035 from the current level, and by 2050 it is two-and-a-half times higher. By the 2030s, the nuclear industry delivers annual additions of around 40 GW per year (Box 7.3). Hydropower capacity also expands strongly, with generation increasing more than 1.5-times by 2050. Unabated fossil fuel plants are operated increasingly for flexibility and capacity adequacy, and consequently their installed capacity falls more slowly than their output across the Outlook period. Fossil fuel plants equipped with CCUS and plants fired with hydrogen or ammonia are also deployed, providing additional low-emissions dispatchable capacity.