global coal consumption has advanced by over 50% in the past decade

[happyslug]

43. 2150 is what Hubbert called the date for "Peak Coal" 2025 according in Energy Watch

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_coal

Hubbert's paper on Fossil fuel production, Go to page 21 to see his estimate on coal production, This paper is dated 1956

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf

In that 1956 Paper, Hubbert made two observations, first oil production in the lower 48 states would peak about 1970 as would Natural Gas production that was tied in with oil production.

Since the 1970s (and due to the Natural Gas crisis of the 1970s), natural gas production has separated from oil production. This has lead to increase Natural gas production. This was a concept Hubbert seems to have missed, but so did most people, my Father talked about his relative of the 1930s, "Coal Oil Johnny" who operated in Pennsylvania. "Coal Oil Johnny" would drill for oil, but find Natural Gas. Oil would have made his rich in the 1930s, Natural gas just paid for the next drilling site. That is how Natural Gas and Oil were related prior to the 1970s, Natural Gas was a by product of oil drilling. No one drilled for Natural Gas.

Thus a huge error on the Part of Hubbert as to Natural Gas, for Natural Gas can exist below 20,000 feet. At 20,000 feet the natural heat of the earth converts oil to Natural Gas. We could drill to 20,000 by 1937, thus Hubbert estimate as to oil was spot on. His estimate on Natural Gas was off.

Unlike Natural Gas, coal reserves were well known by 1956, thus Hubbert's estimate of 2150 for peak coal is still a good estimate. One problem with 2150 is that Coal is looking to be a replacement for oil, something Hubbert did not really count on (Hubbert relied on Nuclear power to replace oil in the 1956 paper).

Thus Energy Watch gives an estimate of 2025 in 2007
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Report_Coal_10-07-2007ms.pdf

The USA, being the second largest producer, already passed peak production of high quality coal in 1990 in the Appalachian and the Illinois basin. Production of subbituminous coal in Wyoming more than compensated for this decline in terms of volume and – according to its stated reserves – this trend can continue for another 10 to 15 years. However, due to the lower energy content of subbituminous coal, US coal production in terms of energy already peaked 5 years ago – it is unclear whether this trend can be reversed. Also specific productivity per miner has been declining since about 2000.