The Paradox of Energy Efficiency

[GliderGuider]

34. You do me a disservice. I'm MUCH more pessimistic than that.

Here's a link to a dispassionate, well-reasoned analysis that was just published by David Korowicz:

Trade Off: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion (PDF)

It is argued that in order to understand systemic risk in the globalised economy, account must be taken of how growing complexity (interconnectedness, interdependence and the speed of processes), the de-localisation of production and concentration within key pillars of the globalised economy have magnified global vulnerability and opened up the possibility of a rapid and large-scale collapse. ‘Collapse’ in this sense means the irreversible loss of socio-economic complexity which fundamentally transforms the nature of the economy. These crucial issues have not been recognised by policy-makers nor are they reflected in economic thinking or modelling.

The point Korowicz makes, in 77 pages of "simple ideas drawn from ecology, systems dynamics, and the study of complex networks" is that our global enterprise is teetering on the brink, vulnerable to shocks starting in the financial system and amplified through the disruption of global supply chains. He makes a damn good case, and his analysis fleshes out what I think is the most probable near-term scenario.

If things begin to come apart in this way (which is my core assumption these days) then funding for all the shiny toys you talk about will simply evaporate as the world tries to keep the lights on and the food moving. In a situation like that, the world is going to stick with sunk-cost infrastructure until the rubble stops bouncing. No solar farms, no wind farms, just coal, oil and gas - not only because the infrastructure is there, but because all those jobs in the coal, oil and gas fields depend on it. And ain't nobody going to shut down those jobs so somebody somewhere else can try their hand at building a few wind turbines.

I encourage you to read the paper - it's a barn-burner. If nothing else it would give you a good idea of just how pessimistic I really am.