Time to go on the record

[Speck Tater]

11. "Ice gone" is hard to define exactly

Right now ships can sail within a few hundred miles of the north pole and encounter only bits and pieces of ice floating in the sea. (See this post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/112723761 and the linked article to see what I'm talking about.)

So the satellites might show solid ice where the ships at the surface show mostly open water with lots of broken bits and pieces of ice. That being the case, the satellite data might be optimistic. I would venture to say that by summer of 2014 ships will be able to cross the Arctic Ocean in any direction and encounter no significant solid ice to slow them down, just floating bits and pieces. This is regardless of what the satellite data says.