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GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
16. You need to expand your horizons, I think.
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 06:00 PM
Oct 2012

Climate change is just one of the factors influencing events at the moment.

Other factors include things like the rising EROEI of oil, the length of supply chains, the need for computer networks to make JIT work, the complexity of global legal, political and financial systems, the eradication of species from random positions in the web of life, the trade webs that make global commerce function, the satellite networks that provide weather and position information, the increasing scarcity of phosphorus and rare earth metals, the unpredictable intrusions into the genomes of many species by genetic engineers, the draw-down of fossil aquifers, the impacts of different educational and religious systems in every country on the planet, and on and on.

All this stuff is interconnected, and creates a system of such profound complexity that chaotic results are literally inevitable. In fact, this chaos is happening all around you right now. The reason you don't recognize it for what it is, is that the human brain has such good adaptive abilities that we interpret the chaos as normal in order to keep from blowing our own minds. This is a good ability if we wish to remain upright and functional in the real world, but it's not so helpful if what we need is to distinguish threatening chaos from the normal kind. Our adaptive mental abilities mask the very changes we need to see.

It's all well and good to isolate one minuscule portion of it, like climate change, and say you don't think it obeys chaotic rules (even though weather demonstrably does), but the world we live in is a LOT bigger and more complex than that. You need to grapple with that fact before you can even begin to grasp the issues.

You are not thinking big enough. Not by two or three orders of magnitude.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

"the system will deteriorate with increasing acceleration" Ghost Dog Oct 2012 #1
Having studied the mathematics of chaos theory, Speck Tater Oct 2012 #2
Sorry, but not at all plausible. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #4
Science often goes counter to common sense. Speck Tater Oct 2012 #11
The science says I'm largely correct. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #12
Whatever. Speck Tater Oct 2012 #13
NOAA begs to differ... GliderGuider Oct 2012 #21
The main problem is with scenarios like..... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #29
A very simple dynamic system can flip. reusrename Oct 2012 #34
That's not quite what I'm reading. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #41
There is a small, but very common, misconception contained in what you say here. reusrename Oct 2012 #54
Glad you cleared that up. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #57
You're no less correct than the article in the OP. reusrename Oct 2012 #32
But what evidence is there...... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #43
Not to beat your dead horse, but RobertEarl Oct 2012 #45
Some good points, but....... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #46
I'm not clear on something GliderGuider Oct 2012 #53
Yup! reusrename Oct 2012 #55
GWP of methane is much higher, and then it oxidizes into CO2 anyway. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #56
What I'm saying is, no plausible argument exists..... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #58
Calthrate gun hype? RobertEarl Oct 2012 #59
It's a theoretical scenario. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #60
Theoretical? RobertEarl Oct 2012 #61
Yes, I get that. n/t AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #62
Just in case. I will repeat RobertEarl Oct 2012 #63
Exactly! reusrename Oct 2012 #64
Not the best article I've come across. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #3
Not the most honest reply that I've come across. Nihil Oct 2012 #6
Notice, though, that I never once claimed that this article talked about Venus or extinction.... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #7
So that makes much of your post a red herring. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #9
Birds and the bees, flowers and the trees RobertEarl Oct 2012 #5
I'm not at all convinced that climate change is anywhere near the only culprit........ AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #8
Of course it's not. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #10
Amazing how closely the Chaos Theory, ... CRH Oct 2012 #14
Not really true. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #15
You need to expand your horizons, I think. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #16
I do very well realize there are problems, but..... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #19
This message was self-deleted by its author GliderGuider Oct 2012 #20
If the patterns of the climate shift so rapidly, ... CRH Oct 2012 #17
I'm not exactly optimistic, CRH. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #18
You consistently have posts that are optimistic, ... CRH Oct 2012 #22
In your opinion, perhaps so. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #25
Addendum to post 22, ... CRH Oct 2012 #23
+1 GliderGuider Oct 2012 #24
Cheerleading much? AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #27
For fuck's sake. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #26
There is nothing we can do RobertEarl Oct 2012 #28
See #30 nt tama Oct 2012 #31
Robert, scientific research says we CAN. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #36
I'll tell you how RobertEarl Oct 2012 #37
Now we're cooking. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #39
Heh, not me man RobertEarl Oct 2012 #44
Re: "if you point fingers at your culprits, make sure you are without sin." AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #47
Transition tama Oct 2012 #50
Terra preta and forest gardening tama Oct 2012 #30
Terra preta is the only thing I've found so far that I think might help overall. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #33
Hugelkultur tama Oct 2012 #35
Permaculture is a remarkable philosophy. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #38
I definitely agree. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #40
Remember "End of Suburbia"? tama Oct 2012 #49
Absolutely! At the end of March I heard American activist Charles Simmons speak about this. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #51
From what I've seen tama Oct 2012 #52
Frickin' awesome stuff, tama, thank you for posting that. =) AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #42
And it's picking up tama Oct 2012 #48
Here's something that's that's suggestive of a chaotic flip: GliderGuider Oct 2012 #65
Chaotic Flip: pscot Oct 2012 #66
I've never understood the value of chaos theory as a predictor wtmusic Oct 2012 #67
No prediction, just an illustrative analogy. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #68
Thanks wtmusic Oct 2012 #70
TBH, you're probably mostly correct. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #69
I got about 80 pages into James Gleick's book wtmusic Oct 2012 #71
No problem, I think we're on the same page. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #72
Not a theory, but a paradigm, Iterate Oct 2012 #73
That was a very illuminating contribution. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #74
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