Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

CRH

(1,553 posts)
17. If the patterns of the climate shift so rapidly, ...
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 05:28 PM
Oct 2012

that no historical records or farmers almanacs can help determine parameters of what to plant, when to plant, or where to plant; what more could define chaos? We do not need an instant apocalypse, to define chaos. Where should I build the next hydroelectric plant, where will the rainfall be, and when, and how much, and for how many years? Will this period of the unknown be temporary and settle out into a new normal, or will it continue to evolve and defy our schedules, and develop into different realities, henceforth from some condition we are presently unaware? You talk with certainty how the climate works, and how sudden shifts are unlikely or not possible. What can you base this on if some known parameters are no longer valid?

By very definition, there is no predicting, chaos. Yet through your rose colored glasses, you attempt to do just that. You talk with great certainty of how the climate works; from what pretense? Past experience, recorded history, religious fervor? What is your basis, that permits you to make statements of certainty, when many known parameters of the climate are likely to be, rendered obsolete? What effects will new ocean currents, wind currents, warming or cooling patterns, ocean acidification, percentages in atmospheric gases, have on not just weather patterns and rainfall, but on plant, animal, bacterial, or viral; growth, life and or death. What will be their resulting, consequent effect on ecosystems and an evolving climate trying to stabilize over what, a decade, century, millennium, or longer?

Will the change happen so fast our solutions will be out paced?

You seem to be an optimist beyond reason of what is happening in front of you today. I don't want to tell you this is unrealistic or pop your balloons. However, perhaps you should examine what you feel is certain today, under a different set of tools, a set of tools that accounts for the changes in the dynamics of your known world and past experiences. Because quite simply, humankind is entering into a new reality not tied to past occurrence, with variables so vast possibilities are incalculable.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

"the system will deteriorate with increasing acceleration" Ghost Dog Oct 2012 #1
Having studied the mathematics of chaos theory, Speck Tater Oct 2012 #2
Sorry, but not at all plausible. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #4
Science often goes counter to common sense. Speck Tater Oct 2012 #11
The science says I'm largely correct. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #12
Whatever. Speck Tater Oct 2012 #13
NOAA begs to differ... GliderGuider Oct 2012 #21
The main problem is with scenarios like..... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #29
A very simple dynamic system can flip. reusrename Oct 2012 #34
That's not quite what I'm reading. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #41
There is a small, but very common, misconception contained in what you say here. reusrename Oct 2012 #54
Glad you cleared that up. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #57
You're no less correct than the article in the OP. reusrename Oct 2012 #32
But what evidence is there...... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #43
Not to beat your dead horse, but RobertEarl Oct 2012 #45
Some good points, but....... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #46
I'm not clear on something GliderGuider Oct 2012 #53
Yup! reusrename Oct 2012 #55
GWP of methane is much higher, and then it oxidizes into CO2 anyway. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #56
What I'm saying is, no plausible argument exists..... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #58
Calthrate gun hype? RobertEarl Oct 2012 #59
It's a theoretical scenario. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #60
Theoretical? RobertEarl Oct 2012 #61
Yes, I get that. n/t AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #62
Just in case. I will repeat RobertEarl Oct 2012 #63
Exactly! reusrename Oct 2012 #64
Not the best article I've come across. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #3
Not the most honest reply that I've come across. Nihil Oct 2012 #6
Notice, though, that I never once claimed that this article talked about Venus or extinction.... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #7
So that makes much of your post a red herring. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #9
Birds and the bees, flowers and the trees RobertEarl Oct 2012 #5
I'm not at all convinced that climate change is anywhere near the only culprit........ AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #8
Of course it's not. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #10
Amazing how closely the Chaos Theory, ... CRH Oct 2012 #14
Not really true. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #15
You need to expand your horizons, I think. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #16
I do very well realize there are problems, but..... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #19
This message was self-deleted by its author GliderGuider Oct 2012 #20
If the patterns of the climate shift so rapidly, ... CRH Oct 2012 #17
I'm not exactly optimistic, CRH. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #18
You consistently have posts that are optimistic, ... CRH Oct 2012 #22
In your opinion, perhaps so. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #25
Addendum to post 22, ... CRH Oct 2012 #23
+1 GliderGuider Oct 2012 #24
Cheerleading much? AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #27
For fuck's sake. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #26
There is nothing we can do RobertEarl Oct 2012 #28
See #30 nt tama Oct 2012 #31
Robert, scientific research says we CAN. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #36
I'll tell you how RobertEarl Oct 2012 #37
Now we're cooking. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #39
Heh, not me man RobertEarl Oct 2012 #44
Re: "if you point fingers at your culprits, make sure you are without sin." AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #47
Transition tama Oct 2012 #50
Terra preta and forest gardening tama Oct 2012 #30
Terra preta is the only thing I've found so far that I think might help overall. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #33
Hugelkultur tama Oct 2012 #35
Permaculture is a remarkable philosophy. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #38
I definitely agree. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #40
Remember "End of Suburbia"? tama Oct 2012 #49
Absolutely! At the end of March I heard American activist Charles Simmons speak about this. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #51
From what I've seen tama Oct 2012 #52
Frickin' awesome stuff, tama, thank you for posting that. =) AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #42
And it's picking up tama Oct 2012 #48
Here's something that's that's suggestive of a chaotic flip: GliderGuider Oct 2012 #65
Chaotic Flip: pscot Oct 2012 #66
I've never understood the value of chaos theory as a predictor wtmusic Oct 2012 #67
No prediction, just an illustrative analogy. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #68
Thanks wtmusic Oct 2012 #70
TBH, you're probably mostly correct. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #69
I got about 80 pages into James Gleick's book wtmusic Oct 2012 #71
No problem, I think we're on the same page. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #72
Not a theory, but a paradigm, Iterate Oct 2012 #73
That was a very illuminating contribution. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #74
Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Environment & Energy»What Environmental Report...»Reply #17