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AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
41. That's not quite what I'm reading.
Thu Oct 11, 2012, 09:49 PM
Oct 2012

The main reason for this is the rather cold winters we had in 2009, 2010, and 2011.....while I don't disagree that overall winters are probably going to get warmer, especially up north(because that's where the science points), there is some speculation that we may actually see more extreme winters, too, as the Arctic warms up.

What the information does say, at least from what I can read; is that summers are definitely getting warmer, as well: especially in more 'temperate' areas like Western Europe.

The biggest problem really, is that the forecasts were once way too conservative. But I must say that too much pessimism, will not only be just as harmful, but will also actually give a huge amount of ammunition to those special interest groups that benefit from seeding disinformation, and right now, we're actually seeing this in action. Were it not for that, it would be significantly harder for Watts, Monckton, et al. to push their wares.

Being too conservative may have made people complacent, but being too extremely pessimistic is not only also not based in reality, but has the additional costs of scaring people off and, again, giving ammo to our opponents.

It is true, of course, that some things have progressed faster than predicted, and that is true. However, though, this does not give any credence to these "we're doomed for sure!" arguments which have been floating around, just as if the deniers wouldn't have gotten any credence if we had been luckier than we expected.

That's why I tend to stick to Skeptical Science, Peter Sinclair, and people like them, because they don't hold back on the truth either way; they don't go to extremes, and they're more than willing to effectively debunk denier myths, half-truths, and propaganda. I can personally attest to how effective that is.....

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

"the system will deteriorate with increasing acceleration" Ghost Dog Oct 2012 #1
Having studied the mathematics of chaos theory, Speck Tater Oct 2012 #2
Sorry, but not at all plausible. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #4
Science often goes counter to common sense. Speck Tater Oct 2012 #11
The science says I'm largely correct. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #12
Whatever. Speck Tater Oct 2012 #13
NOAA begs to differ... GliderGuider Oct 2012 #21
The main problem is with scenarios like..... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #29
A very simple dynamic system can flip. reusrename Oct 2012 #34
That's not quite what I'm reading. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #41
There is a small, but very common, misconception contained in what you say here. reusrename Oct 2012 #54
Glad you cleared that up. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #57
You're no less correct than the article in the OP. reusrename Oct 2012 #32
But what evidence is there...... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #43
Not to beat your dead horse, but RobertEarl Oct 2012 #45
Some good points, but....... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #46
I'm not clear on something GliderGuider Oct 2012 #53
Yup! reusrename Oct 2012 #55
GWP of methane is much higher, and then it oxidizes into CO2 anyway. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #56
What I'm saying is, no plausible argument exists..... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #58
Calthrate gun hype? RobertEarl Oct 2012 #59
It's a theoretical scenario. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #60
Theoretical? RobertEarl Oct 2012 #61
Yes, I get that. n/t AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #62
Just in case. I will repeat RobertEarl Oct 2012 #63
Exactly! reusrename Oct 2012 #64
Not the best article I've come across. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #3
Not the most honest reply that I've come across. Nihil Oct 2012 #6
Notice, though, that I never once claimed that this article talked about Venus or extinction.... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #7
So that makes much of your post a red herring. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #9
Birds and the bees, flowers and the trees RobertEarl Oct 2012 #5
I'm not at all convinced that climate change is anywhere near the only culprit........ AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #8
Of course it's not. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #10
Amazing how closely the Chaos Theory, ... CRH Oct 2012 #14
Not really true. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #15
You need to expand your horizons, I think. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #16
I do very well realize there are problems, but..... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #19
This message was self-deleted by its author GliderGuider Oct 2012 #20
If the patterns of the climate shift so rapidly, ... CRH Oct 2012 #17
I'm not exactly optimistic, CRH. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #18
You consistently have posts that are optimistic, ... CRH Oct 2012 #22
In your opinion, perhaps so. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #25
Addendum to post 22, ... CRH Oct 2012 #23
+1 GliderGuider Oct 2012 #24
Cheerleading much? AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #27
For fuck's sake. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #26
There is nothing we can do RobertEarl Oct 2012 #28
See #30 nt tama Oct 2012 #31
Robert, scientific research says we CAN. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #36
I'll tell you how RobertEarl Oct 2012 #37
Now we're cooking. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #39
Heh, not me man RobertEarl Oct 2012 #44
Re: "if you point fingers at your culprits, make sure you are without sin." AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #47
Transition tama Oct 2012 #50
Terra preta and forest gardening tama Oct 2012 #30
Terra preta is the only thing I've found so far that I think might help overall. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #33
Hugelkultur tama Oct 2012 #35
Permaculture is a remarkable philosophy. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #38
I definitely agree. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #40
Remember "End of Suburbia"? tama Oct 2012 #49
Absolutely! At the end of March I heard American activist Charles Simmons speak about this. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #51
From what I've seen tama Oct 2012 #52
Frickin' awesome stuff, tama, thank you for posting that. =) AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #42
And it's picking up tama Oct 2012 #48
Here's something that's that's suggestive of a chaotic flip: GliderGuider Oct 2012 #65
Chaotic Flip: pscot Oct 2012 #66
I've never understood the value of chaos theory as a predictor wtmusic Oct 2012 #67
No prediction, just an illustrative analogy. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #68
Thanks wtmusic Oct 2012 #70
TBH, you're probably mostly correct. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #69
I got about 80 pages into James Gleick's book wtmusic Oct 2012 #71
No problem, I think we're on the same page. AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #72
Not a theory, but a paradigm, Iterate Oct 2012 #73
That was a very illuminating contribution. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #74
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