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GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
14. Yes. As economic collapse progresses I think we'll see
Sat Oct 27, 2012, 05:25 PM
Oct 2012

A rise in infant mortality, due to infectious diseases made more prevalent by a decline in resistance due to malnutrition;
A rise in overall mortality due to alcohol; and
A further drop in birth rates as women decide to stop bringing children into the world just to watch them die.

Dropping oil consumption reduces economic activity (and vice versa, in a feedback loop), and that helps the environment while being hard on people.

The impact of oil shortages per se during the Cuban special period has been overstated. Oil consumption fell by just 20% over three years from 1989 to 1992, but the main social impact was economic, from the loss of trade with the Soviet Union. Wikipedia says this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Period

The dissolution of the Soviet Union hit the Cuban economy severely. The country lost approximately 80% of its imports, 80% of its exports and its Gross Domestic Product dropped by 34 percent. Food and medicine imports stopped or severely slowed. The largest immediate impact was the loss of nearly all of the petroleum imports from the USSR; Cuba's oil imports dropped to 10% of pre-1990 amounts. Before this, Cuba had been re-exporting any Soviet petroleum it did not consume to other nations for profit, meaning that petroleum had been Cuba's second largest export product before 1990. Once the restored Russian Federation emerged from the former Soviet Union, its administration immediately made clear that it had no intention of delivering petroleum that had been guaranteed the island by the USSR; this resulted in a decrease in Cuban consumption by 20% of its previous level within two years.


http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=cu&product=oil&graph=consumption

The moral of the story is, don't put all your trade eggs in one basket. From this point of view modern industrial countries could weather oil shocks better than Cuba did. For a while...

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Wrong on every level. lalalu Oct 2012 #1
Thanks for your input. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #2
Chernobyl Might Have Had a Significant Impact on Those Figures AndyTiedye Oct 2012 #3
If you can find some evidence I'd love to see it. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #5
I am not sure about your point and lalalu Oct 2012 #4
It would be quite a stretch to extend your idea not only to cprise Oct 2012 #10
Different regions have different demographic influences. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #11
+100 mjrr_595 Oct 2012 #18
Thank You lalalu Oct 2012 #19
Sounds like "The Underminers" may be on the right track. Speck Tater Oct 2012 #6
Thanks, I hadn't run across it before. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #8
"various saturation effects (as seen in Western Europe and Japan)" deserves more examination muriel_volestrangler Oct 2012 #7
The sorts of saturation effects I'm thinking about GliderGuider Oct 2012 #9
Consumption of refined oil products in Italy fell 14.8 percent year-on-year tama Oct 2012 #12
Three main factors tama Oct 2012 #13
Yes. As economic collapse progresses I think we'll see GliderGuider Oct 2012 #14
OK tama Oct 2012 #15
Energy is just one factor, of course. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #16
Russia is interesting tama Oct 2012 #17
I finally got around to reading Orlov on Kropotkin and anarchism - fabulous series. GliderGuider Oct 2012 #23
Yi Quan tama Nov 2012 #24
Gapminder Iterate Oct 2012 #20
This is fascinating PATRICK Oct 2012 #21
Thanks! I think this is a good way of looking at the situation GliderGuider Oct 2012 #22
Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Environment & Energy»Population, economic grow...»Reply #14