Actual Carbon Emissions vs. IPCC Scenarios - how far away is safety?

[GliderGuider]

16. I have Ward's book - it's a terrifying read...

I don't think we could trigger that sort of event - it would probably take continental-scale vulcanism, and as narsty as humans are to the planet I don't think we can quite do that.

However, I think a smaller-scale extinction combining the best features of both PETM (for the oceans) and the K-T event (for us land-based critters) might be doable. If we manage to burn through say 2,000 GtC before the end of the century, and trigger a bunch of methane cascades in the process, it should be possible.

I'd give it a POMA probability of 10%, but only sometime in the 22nd century. Of course an event like that would have some foreshocks, one of which we're seeing around us now, but those should ramp up in intensity by the end of the century. Humans won't be at risk - at least not the whole species, though the implosion of this cycle of civilization might make some of us want to participate...