Environment & Energy

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)

35. I think our worst-case scenario (at the moment) is 1200 ppm by 2100.

Sat Nov 17, 2012, 11:00 PM

Nov 2012

I'm working on a post about this right now, but the short answer is that based on the pattern of our last 20 to 30 years of fossil use, we will hit 1000 to 1200 ppm by 2100. There is enough unburned carbon to do it.

The worst news is about global surface temperatures. Depending on how sensitive the climate actually turns out to be, we could be well over +10 by 2100. At a sensitivity of +3C per doubling, the range would be 8 to 10, if it's +5 per doubling the range will be 13 to 18 degrees C.

So we're looking at 1000 to 1200 ppm, for a temperature range of +8 to +18 (!!!) by 2100.

Now that's what I call a worst-case scenario. I'll post an OP with graphs and explanations tomorrow.

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Actual Carbon Emissions vs. IPCC Scenarios - how far away is safety? [View all] GliderGuider Nov 2012 OP

You may want to redo this at some point. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #1

This is the curve that Bill McKibben's "Do the Math" tour is all about. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #2

Six Degrees and The God Species should be required reading for policy makers wtmusic Nov 2012 #5

To what extent do you think we could trigger another Permian extinction? cprise Nov 2012 #8

I have Ward's book - it's a terrifying read... GliderGuider Nov 2012 #16

The projections I have seen put us at over 900ppm CO2 by 2100 cprise Nov 2012 #34

I think our worst-case scenario (at the moment) is 1200 ppm by 2100. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #35

That seems too hot to avoid a drastic change in biochemistry cprise Nov 2012 #40

Mostly true, but there's a difference: AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #12

There are a number of species that lived through that level of warming cprise Nov 2012 #14

What honestly makes you think we can't? AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #15

It's actually not a compliment to the species that we survived Toba. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #23

Well, I'm now convinced that more research is needed re: Toba at any rate. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #25

I briefly told you what cprise Nov 2012 #33

I don't think you've really understood what I've been trying to say. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #36

What a bunch of sloppy posturing cprise Nov 2012 #39

Sure, sure. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #41

We probably run out of life as well before then NoOneMan Nov 2012 #6

Haven't gotten to it just yet. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #9

It would surely be the end of civilization as we know it NoOneMan Nov 2012 #11

You keep using that word "fact," XemaSab Nov 2012 #13

I know full well what I'm talking about here. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #17

That's not what you said XemaSab Nov 2012 #18

OK, I do realize I could have been clearer. However, my point does still stand. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #19

The stuff coming out of your keyboard XemaSab Nov 2012 #20

On the contrary. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #21

I'll go with the IPCC scenarios caraher Nov 2012 #3

That's your prerogative - this thumbnail assessment isn't the Truth. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #4

This message was self-deleted by its author NoOneMan Nov 2012 #7

Very true. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #10

I'm unwilling to extrapolate out to 2100, based soley on data for the past 20-odd years OKIsItJustMe Nov 2012 #22

Stopping the extrapolation at 2015 leaves far too much wiggle room for the diminishers. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #24

That�s worse! OKIsItJustMe Nov 2012 #29

The point is to present what is possibly the worst case scenario imaginable. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #30

I suggest a simple graph for 1980-2015 OKIsItJustMe Nov 2012 #31

I prefer to keep it in line with the IPCC projections that go out to 2100. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #32

Me neither. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #26

You don't trust Bill McKibben? GliderGuider Nov 2012 #27

It seems I made a mistake. I apologize. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #28

On the lighter side... caraher Nov 2012 #37

Yer not going to like my next trick very much either, then. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #38