Environment & Energy

joshcryer

(62,536 posts)

20. I can't really disagree, I just can't predict how bad the die off will be.

Mon Nov 19, 2012, 12:01 AM

Nov 2012

As I conceded on several occasions I can't rule out a scenario where the die off is utterly devastating, it's just that I don't have evidence to believe that to be the case. As far as I see it, there's no way even the most corrupt organizations are going to let it get so bad as to do absolutely nothing. The 10C number is conditioned entirely on no albedo actions being taken.

As David Keith points out, as soon as Asia is hit hard by long term seasonal monsoon disintegration they will be desperate and they will start spraying aerosols rather quickly. This will happen no more than 20 years from now given the rapid increase in feedback effects.

Hell, the US may do it sooner than that if the current exceptional drought continues.

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Global warming of +10C is ====>!!NOT!!<==== a reasonable expectation (erratum et apologia) [View all] GliderGuider Nov 2012 OP

Still waiting for someone to debunk Lynas wtmusic Nov 2012 #1

Woh - Impressive Work Bigmack Nov 2012 #2

AT +10C, anybody who thinks humanity's survival is guaranteed is deluded. phantom power Nov 2012 #3

A +10C shift would be a planetwide catastrophe struggle4progress Nov 2012 #4

There is absolutely no question about that. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #5

By then we'll be colonizing Mars. joshcryer Nov 2012 #7

Is that a joke? NoOneMan Nov 2012 #9

Now that's an interesting observation. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #11

That's the main point I'm trying to make. joshcryer Nov 2012 #14

That'll happen too. We'll also probably move underground. joshcryer Nov 2012 #13

Any technology requires two key things in order to function GliderGuider Nov 2012 #15

Like you pointed out, we have fossil fuels until 2090. joshcryer Nov 2012 #17

Finding, drilling, transporting, refining and distributing GliderGuider Nov 2012 #19

I can't really disagree, I just can't predict how bad the die off will be. joshcryer Nov 2012 #20

Yes, there are a lot of unknowns. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #22

What can I say? Why aren't those in power getting the message? Starboard Tack Nov 2012 #6

I suspect that some of them ignore it because they already get it. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #12

I'm not so sure they get it. Not to the point of solution. Starboard Tack Nov 2012 #23

For the vast majority, I'm sure you're right. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #24

I think your study has a weakness that you have stated, ... CRH Nov 2012 #8

Thanks, those are good additions. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #10

So are you "prepping" for your predictions? NoOneMan Nov 2012 #16

Nope. I've made the choice to stay in my community and go through whatever they do. GliderGuider Nov 2012 #18

Good luck with that! NoOneMan Nov 2012 #21

Easter Island AldoLeopold Nov 2012 #25

Carl Lipo and Terry Hunt have some different mahina Nov 2012 #26

Yah, totally its contraversial AldoLeopold Nov 2012 #27

Rapa Nui peoples struggles are not over mahina Nov 2012 #28

holy smokes, my android does some crazy autocorrects. mahina Nov 2012 #29

Their radio carbing dating is thoroughly unsupported. joshcryer Nov 2012 #31

Really? AldoLeopold Nov 2012 #36

Carl Lipo and Terry Hunt have some wrong ideas about what happened. joshcryer Nov 2012 #30

Interesting mahina Nov 2012 #34

You sir, are on my awesome list AldoLeopold Nov 2012 #37

joshcryer and I may not agree on everything, but GliderGuider Nov 2012 #43

I think you're way too sanguine pscot Nov 2012 #32

The biggest unknown in all this is GliderGuider Nov 2012 #38

I agree pscot Nov 2012 #40

Acceleration - that's the kick in the nuts, isn't it? GliderGuider Nov 2012 #42

The kick in the nadgers pscot Nov 2012 #44

+10C is PETM temperatures. Odin2005 Nov 2012 #33

Yeah, not by 2100, anyhow. AverageJoe90 Nov 2012 #35

If we act by +3, we'll eventually get +6 anyway GliderGuider Nov 2012 #39

I've been pondering what temperature change I believe is realistic GliderGuider Nov 2012 #41

Kick to make sure people see my error and apology nt GliderGuider Nov 2012 #45

Phew. Please pass the gasoline? wtmusic Nov 2012 #46