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Environment & Energy
In reply to the discussion: This message was self-deleted by its author [View all]GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)19. That report is pretty harsh on the IPCC
The drastic decline of summer Arctic sea ice is one recent example: In the 2007 report, the IPCC concluded the Arctic would not lose its summer ice before 2070 at the earliest. But the ice pack has shrunk far faster than any scenario scientists felt policymakers should consider; now researchers say the region could see nearly ice-free summers within 20 years.
The IPCC concluded the Arctic would not shed most of its summer sea ice cover before 2070 at the earliest. But the sea ice pack has shrunk far faster than most scenarios scientists felt policymakers should consider; now researchers say the region could see largely ice-free summers within 20 years.
Sea-level rise is another. In its 2001 report, the IPCC predicted an annual sea-level rise of less than 2 millimeters per year. But from 1993 through 2006, the oceans actually rose 3.3 millimeters per year, more than 50 percent above that projection. The IPCC did note, however, that its sea level rise projections did not take into account the contribution of the melting of Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheet, since there was conflicting evidence at the time.
Some climate researchers also worry that recent institutional changes could accentuate the organization's conservative bias in the fifth IPCC assessment, to be released in parts starting in September 2013.
The tendency to underplay climate impacts needs to be recognized, conclude the authors of a recent paper exploring this bias. Failure to do so, they wrote in their study published last month in the journal Global Environmental Change, "could prevent the full recognition, articulation and acknowledgement of dramatic natural phenomena that may in fact be occurring."
The IPCC concluded the Arctic would not shed most of its summer sea ice cover before 2070 at the earliest. But the sea ice pack has shrunk far faster than most scenarios scientists felt policymakers should consider; now researchers say the region could see largely ice-free summers within 20 years.
Sea-level rise is another. In its 2001 report, the IPCC predicted an annual sea-level rise of less than 2 millimeters per year. But from 1993 through 2006, the oceans actually rose 3.3 millimeters per year, more than 50 percent above that projection. The IPCC did note, however, that its sea level rise projections did not take into account the contribution of the melting of Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheet, since there was conflicting evidence at the time.
Some climate researchers also worry that recent institutional changes could accentuate the organization's conservative bias in the fifth IPCC assessment, to be released in parts starting in September 2013.
The tendency to underplay climate impacts needs to be recognized, conclude the authors of a recent paper exploring this bias. Failure to do so, they wrote in their study published last month in the journal Global Environmental Change, "could prevent the full recognition, articulation and acknowledgement of dramatic natural phenomena that may in fact be occurring."
Damned extremist scientists anyway. As bad as activist judges, they are. They should all get themselves peer-reviewed.
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And there's no sign that we are deviating from the highest-carbon scenarios.
GliderGuider
Dec 2012
#11
They don't even assess drought. Hopefully that's changed before AR5 is finished.
joshcryer
Dec 2012
#15
Which is how I'm beginning to think the IPCC should conduct it's business as well.
AverageJoe90
Dec 2012
#63
Nope, sorry - and the Chicken Little cartoon was the last straw - hot-button for me
hatrack
Dec 2012
#90
Isn't it perhaps possible that methane may not have as much of a impact.....
AverageJoe90
Dec 2012
#61
You aren't allowed to allude to that "possibility" without a leaked IPCC AR5 snippet to back you up
NoOneMan
Dec 2012
#64
He is not qualified according to the criteria Rajendra Pachauri claimed was used
Nederland
Dec 2012
#84