Environment & Energy
In reply to the discussion: This message was self-deleted by its author [View all]Nederland
(9,979 posts)Those papers describe stresses on food production that come from declining oil, land scarcity, and drought due to climate change. While the effects of peak oil and declining arable land are to my knowledge still valid points, the assumption that global warming will result in more droughts is no longer the scientific consensus. A quick scan of the section on climate change in the third paper you linked to shows that the studies referenced to support the assumption of increasing drought are 7-14 years old. The most recent analysis of global warming's impact on drought frequency contradicts these outdated studies. The shift in the scientific consensus is described by the IPCC this way:
New results indicate that the AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in hydrological droughts since the 1970s are no longer supported. Not enough evidence exists at present to suggest anything else than low confidence in observed large-scale trends in dryness (lack of rainfall), due to lack of direct observations, dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice and geographical inconsistencies in the trends.
Chapter 2, Page 5