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[CRH]

54. On what basis do you insist he is not qualified, ...

is that Phd. some magical level of supposed competence?

What is the sad fact, is the political and economic influence on the determination of the science. How can you have faith in the IPCC when their conclusions are being steered in the directions economy and politics dictates. This AR5 to be released in increments starting in Sept. of 2013 will be just as incomplete, edited, and obsolete, as the previous editions.

Did you know, that the emissions from the permafrost that is in the process of thawing as we speak, will not be included in any of the temperature models? That the UNEP paper just released admits the temperature models will be bias downward, and the anthropogenic emissions levels being sought in negotiations will be biased upwards. So even if an emissions agreement can be reached, it will still promote runaway warming with additional feedbacks.

It is not hard to figure why these emissions are being left out. We have over 2700 Gt of global carbon reserves owned by countries and corporations. Even if one is irrationally optimistic and believes to 2*C world is still possible, that permits only the use of 20% of that stock, another optimistic assumption. Now, cut that number in half for the natural release of CO2 and Methane from the permafrost, and you have a very slim allowance of CO2e expenditure over the next nine decades. Not enough to support agriculture, transportation, electric generation, or basically what we refer to as, civilization. You want the kicker? How much of the capitalist foundation of credit creation and capital creation and circulation, is based on fossil fuel reserves? There is not a solvent stock exchange on the planet, when you remove the value given to 90% of the fossil fuel reserves. To use them is mass suicide, to not use them is collapse of capital and credit. Those reserves have the same multiplier effect that banks have for a single dollar of physical collateral, that is then multiplied into 10 or more non collateralised credit dollars. In short, when the real value of those reserves becomes obvious, capitalism fails, as well as dictatorships supported by fossil fuels.

So this next IPCC report already has a built in obsolescence complete with political and economic bias in temperature models and emission pathways, that virtually guarantees runaway global warming.

The newly released UNEP report on permafrost.

http://policypointers.org/Page/View/14799 or
http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf

Commission a Special Report on Permafrost Emissions: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) may consider preparing a special assessment report on how CO2 and methane emissions from thawing permafrost would influence global climate to support climate change policy discussions and treaty negotiations. All climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, due for release in 2013-14, are likely to be biased on the low side relative to global temperature because the models did not include the permafrost carbon feedback. Consequently, targets for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions based on these climate projections would be biased high. The treaty in negotiation sets a global target warming of 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100. If anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions targets do not account for CO2 and methane emissions from thawing permafrost, the world may overshoot this target.

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