Laying Blame: Population vs. Consumption [View all]

[GliderGuider]

We all know the planet is in lousy shape from the perspective of most multi-cellular life forms. We all accept that "we" are causing it. The perennial bunfight is over which aspect of "us" bears most responsibility - the growth in our numbers or the growth in our consumption. The choice we make about where to put our activist energy depends on our assessment of the answer to that question.

A bit of research I did recently has helped clarify the question in my mind, and I thought I'd share it.

Between 1980 and 2010 the world population grew by about 50% - an average of 1.5% per year. Population growth has not been exponential since the early 1970s. We have been on a "growth plateau" of just under 80 million people per year over that time, meaning that the percentage growth rate is dropping. It's now south of 1.1% per year - half what it was in 1970.

Between 1980 and 2010 the world's industrial output (not GDP, just industrial production) grew by about 125% - at an average of 2.75% per year.. What's worse is that the rate of industrial growth has been increasing over time - from about 2% per annum in the 1980s to about 4% last year.

All things considered, if we want to preserve even a livable planet for the future (even a barely livable one) we desperately need to get a handle on our lust for industrialization.

Can we do it? are we willing to take the hit implied by a 50% reduction in global industrial activity? Ar do we want to focus all our magical thinking on population and the Demographic Transition Theory - which amounts to pointing at the problem of industrialization and claiming it's somehow the solution?

We are out of time. Population growth is no longer the ogre is was feared to be in the past. If we can't get our heads around stopping the planet-wide growth of industry, we are well and truly hooped - not in the long run but before one more generation has passed.