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GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
25. I don't think it "solves" it - and there's one twist to my scenario
Tue Jan 22, 2013, 04:22 PM
Jan 2013

In my scenario the pressure from climate change keeps increasing as time goes on. That is, the climate pressure on population goes from 0 in 2025 to -1% in 2050, but I don't say it stops there. If it maintained that rate of increase then by 2100 it would be dropping by 3% a year - by 30 per thousand every year. On top of a net "natural" birth rate that (according to the UN) will have fallen to 0 by mid-century, we'd be down to around 2.5 billion by the end of the century. Sad for people, but it would take care of the population problem.

But I wasn't trying to demonstrate that climate change is going to "solve" overpopulation in the short term. As the calculation points out it's quite possible for it to do so over the medium term, if one accepts my assumption that the negative pressure of climate change on population will keep increasing over time. However, my point is simply that climate change has the potential to reduce population faster than any human population control measure could take effect over the next generation or two. So maybe if we're going to address urgent existential problems by throwing money, effort, and resources at them, attacking overpopulation directly may not have the best return on investment.

Edited to add: Yes, there is hunger and thirst and exposure involved. And war, and crime, and misery and hardship, and lots of pain and suffering. It sounds a lot like an average day on most of the planet to me. Any reason we should we be exempt? Is there any way to avoid it?

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What's AGW? tama Jan 2013 #1
Sorry, it's "Anthropogenic Global Warming" GliderGuider Jan 2013 #2
Urban consumer myopia tama Jan 2013 #3
Lots of emotive drama GliderGuider Jan 2013 #6
Emotive drama? tama Jan 2013 #8
Oedipus is not "emotive drama"? GliderGuider Jan 2013 #9
Nice meal, tummy full, good woman, tama Jan 2013 #13
My grumpy friend tama Jan 2013 #46
Thank you so much for that. GliderGuider Jan 2013 #47
Let's not underestimate intellect tama Jan 2013 #48
Yes - both/and instead of either/or. GliderGuider Jan 2013 #49
And courage nt tama Jan 2013 #50
Toujours courage, mon vieux! nt GliderGuider Jan 2013 #53
AGW without a doubt, ... CRH Jan 2013 #4
Good point. copare the two scenarios... Speck Tater Jan 2013 #17
To me any one issue isn't really bigger or smaller than the next The2ndWheel Jan 2013 #5
If not bigger or smaller, how about "more or less urgent"? nt GliderGuider Jan 2013 #7
Nobody can agree on that either The2ndWheel Jan 2013 #10
That's pretty much my take on it. GliderGuider Jan 2013 #11
Both issues are important, but, ... CRH Jan 2013 #12
Perhaps both are mutually correcting in a feedback loop? GliderGuider Jan 2013 #14
That is the scenario I perceive, ... CRH Jan 2013 #15
So it goes... nt GliderGuider Jan 2013 #16
Or homo sapiens more clever than wise NoOneMan Jan 2013 #24
Tool monkeys GliderGuider Jan 2013 #26
Tool Monkeys fuck yeah! indeed. n/t CRH Jan 2013 #34
AGW. But then, I've always held nature & wildlife in higher regard than people. nt raouldukelives Jan 2013 #18
Me too. truebluegreen Jan 2013 #51
Self organizing systems... NoOneMan Jan 2013 #19
Mmmhmm. GliderGuider Jan 2013 #21
‘Population Bomb’ scientist: ‘Nobody’ has the right to ‘as many children as they want’ Judi Lynn Jan 2013 #20
I read this, and I'm still a bit in the dark on one thing. GliderGuider Jan 2013 #22
If no couple had more than two children wtmusic Jan 2013 #27
This message was self-deleted by its author wtmusic Jan 2013 #29
Actually, I might try and claim that. GliderGuider Jan 2013 #30
This message was self-deleted by its author wtmusic Jan 2013 #32
Nope, no special powers. And I'm just as human and illusion-ridden as the next schmoe. GliderGuider Jan 2013 #35
This thing is quite the mind fuck, eh? NoOneMan Jan 2013 #37
Thank you. Yes, it is. GliderGuider Jan 2013 #41
I have a question for you on the two child family, ... CRH Jan 2013 #36
No, thats not quite right NoOneMan Jan 2013 #38
Yeah that is what I am wrestling with, ... CRH Jan 2013 #39
There is a finite number of generations alive at any given time. NoOneMan Jan 2013 #42
No, two is the right number. GliderGuider Jan 2013 #43
Ok I guess, but my brain still resists, ... CRH Jan 2013 #44
Yes, you got it. Plus... GliderGuider Jan 2013 #45
I went through this same process on DU a few years ago. wtmusic Jan 2013 #52
Your scenario (roughly double the death rate) would still be 'overpopulation' muriel_volestrangler Jan 2013 #23
I don't think it "solves" it - and there's one twist to my scenario GliderGuider Jan 2013 #25
You said "Climate change will fix that (overpopulation)" is your position muriel_volestrangler Jan 2013 #33
Oh dear. GliderGuider Jan 2013 #40
Anthropogenic Climate Change is an overriding priority OKIsItJustMe Jan 2013 #28
So stipulated, your Honor. GliderGuider Jan 2013 #31
Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Environment & Energy»AGW: a bigger issue than ...»Reply #25