Nicholas Stern: 'I got it wrong on climate change – it's far, far worse'

[Nihil]

93. One could ask you the same question.

> How many times do you have to make the same mistake?

Repeating the mistake doesn't seem to make it better does it?

> I've lost count of the number of times I've seen people make the same stupid assumption
> when it comes to almost any form of change. A person looks at what impact the given change
> will have, assumes that people will continue to behave exactly as they do today, and then
> writes up conclusions about how horrible it will be.
>
> The problem is people don't behave that way.

History proves you wrong.


> They never have, they never will. When change occurs, people's behavior changes in response.

That is the ideal and yes, a fraction of the people do indeed change their behaviour. A far larger
fraction muddle through (if they are lucky) and then go back to the same dumb behaviour that
they've always exhibited.


> The assumption that a farmer who is growing wheat will continue to grow wheat long after
> growing conditions have made growing wheat unproductive is idiotic.

So that's why we never hear about famine killing thousands in Africa any more?

Those times back in the 1970s must have just been a fluke that has never happened at any
previous point in the countries affected and they obviously learned from their experience so
that they haven't recurred at all.


> People are not stupid.

Wrong. Individual people may not be stupid but when you aggregate them they are very stupid indeed.


> If something stops working they do something different.

Again, a few do. They learn. They change their behaviour.

They also get constant background noise from the rest of the herd who are *convinced* that
there is no need to change "just yet" and that by changing they are giving in to "doomer panic"
or other derogatory phrases intended to promote the perceived superiority of the speaker,
who would otherwise find their peace of mind disturbed - perhaps even sufficiently to admit
that their Business As Usual approach is actually the "stupid" behaviour that they are trying
so hard to deny exists.