New (Flow) Battery Design Could Help Solar and Wind Energy Power the Grid

[BlueStreak]

13. EVs are way under 1% of the market

That article grossly overstates the EV market by lumping them in with plug-in hybrids.

EV sales in the US in 2012 were, what?, 20,000 vehicles -- and that may be only if you include golf carts. Total vehicle sales were 14,500,000. That's barely 1/10 of one percent.

That article has the classical reasoning error of extrapolating from a single point. You need at least two points to draw a line.

What should be obvious to everybody is that the future of EVs will be linked directly to the energy density, cost, and recharge time of batteries. If there is an order of magnitude improvement in battery technology, then there will be an order of magnitude increase in EV market share.

But there has been very little improvement in recharge time and economics -- nothing like "Moore's law". Energy density has been improving a little through improved packaging and cooling, but it may take 10 years to see a fourfold increase in energy density, and that is really the entry point for the average consumer (assuming recharge time and cost are reasonable).

The market share difference between fuel cells and EVs is only 0.1% I say that as a joke, but the hard point is that fuel cells could overtake EVs. The economics of fuel cells aren't that far from lithium batteries. Fuel cells would need a hydrogen infrastructure, of course, and that will slow their penetration. The next generation is wide open at this point.