San Onofre shutdown will mean tight electricity supplies

[FBaggins]

23. Yes, really.

"I see the ocean" does not mean "there's a risk of a dangerous tsunami"

The geology is very different. Look it up... what's the worst tsunami ever recorded along the west coast of the US (not counting Alaska)?

The San Onofre plant was built under 10 miles from the Newport-Inglewood fault. A fault understood to be capable of producing an 8.0.

The fault's potential quake is actually estimated to be between a 6.0 and the low 7s. That's a big difference.

Just as importantly... it isn't a fault that would produce a significant tsunami.

What do you think, just offhand guess, what sized quake the plant was designed/rated to handle?

What do you mean by "handle"? It's design basis quake was about a 7... but you need to understand that "design basis" doesn't mean "it blows up once a quake exceeds that level". It means that the plant should be able to take that quake and return to service after inspection and testing. So, for instance, the two reactors in VA that exceeded their design basis quake a year or so ago weren't in any danger and resumed operation shortly afterward.

So the shorthand answer is that Newport-Inglewood could theoretically produce a quake at the top end of it's potential on just the wrong spot and it could exceed the design basis. But the worst case wouldn't be a meltdown... it would be a damaged plant that had to stay shut down for an extended period.