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GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
10. Here's a look at a longer time series
Wed Jun 26, 2013, 09:15 AM
Jun 2013


The question is what happens in the future. Is the fossil-fueled growth we've seen since the mid-to-late 1800's a bubble that will shortly subside or burst? Or is it a signal that complex adaptive system of human civilization has undergone a bifurcation - a transition to a new, meta-stable high-energy state?

It seems obvious that recent growth rates can't/won't be sustained, so the rapid growth will stop. The question is, can we maintain the energy supplies, climate regime and biosphere required to maintain the new state? In other words will the underlying curves turn out to be be sigmoid, or a peak-and-decline of some sort? From what I'm seeing, the latter seems far more probable.

Edit to add: Post-WWII reconstruction seems to have accelerated the growth, but the rate of change has been rising since about 1875. that implies that fossil fuels are behind it. The end of post-war reconstruction may have been responsible for the down-turn in growth since 1972, but growth rates are still far above the historical norms without fossil fuels.

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