Environment & Energy
In reply to the discussion: NHK: Thyroid cancer found in 18 Fukushima children [View all]FBaggins
(28,729 posts)And it wasn't "fabricated"... it was clearly an example and I clearly said that they don't really know how many people get it.
The incidence rate of thyroid cancer in children is said to be one in hundreds of thousands
And that's because until now, the "incidence rate" in children consisted entirely of palpable nodules that were determined to need a biopsy (which then of course had to come back positive). And that's incredibly rare. Which is not the same thing as saying that thyroid cancer is incredibly rare. It's actually now thought to be quite common. In a couple autopsy studies of people who died from other causes, as many as half of them were found to have had thyroid cancer that never went diagnosed (it usually has no symptoms).
You should have learned this lesson years ago... when Caldicott tried to convince people that the thyroid "abnormalities" being found were also caused by Fukushima... because in her decades of experience, she had never found a kid with nodules but now as many as 40% in Fukushima were found with them. This was obviously because her experience was limited to nodules that a pediatrician could feel (usually greater than 20mm) and at that young age it's quite rare. The problem is that the ones they were finding in Japan were much much smaller than what was palpable (and, of course, it was far too early for radiation-induced thyroid cancer to appear)
Then the studies of kids far away from Fukushima came back with a higher rate of thyroid abnormalities - proving that (as with this result), the numbers were entirely within the normal range.
There were only two possible conclusions. One is that (as we've known from the beginning) they haven't seen any thyroid impact so far from Fukushima (which is not to say that there won't be any)... the other is to side with nuts like Busby who insist that the Japanese government is intentionally poisoning the kids in other parts of Japan so that the Fukushima results will look normal by comparison.
Is that really the camp you want to be in?