Black Swan Theory and anti-nuclear sentiment [View all]

[wtmusic]

Black Swan Theory, as explained by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007/2010 book, The Black Swan, describes an event which is a disproportionally-rare occurrence, is unpredictable, but has a high-impact when it does occur. According to Taleb, Black Swan events include the September 11 attacks, the rise of the Internet, World War I and the development of the personal computer. As a result, the event’s non-predictability causes behavioral/psychological changes within people, especially ones who adhere to the scientific method for identifying events. Statistically speaking, these outliers pay a disproportionate role in public opinion and public policy.

Critics of nuclear energy point to the destructive capabilities of failed reactors and long-lasting effects of radioactive energy as reasons of pessimism. According to USA Today, the Union of Concerned Scientists cited “serious safety problems” that plague U.S. Nuclear plants as a main reason for halting nuclear energy programs.

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As the statistics show, well-managed nuclear programs pose less risk than other programs which we view as “safe”. The best way to change public opinion about the likelihood of nuclear accidents is to make more information available not only about the safety procedures in nuclear reactors, but also about the true causes of recent nuclear accidents—failure to arrest corrosion in two cases and an overwhelming natural disaster in the third case. Only by doing so will humans be able to driven by reliable statistics instead of the black shroud of the black swan."

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