Black Swan Theory and anti-nuclear sentiment

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15. My mistake - 9.0 earthquakes in Japan are even less frequent

Earthquakes and tsunamis aren't once-in-a-millenium occurrences. But the 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake was not just any earthquake, was it? In fact it was the strongest recorded earthquake in Japanese history - going back to 624. That means you'd possibly have to go back millenia to see something as bad. "Once in several millenia..." - I stand corrected.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_Japan

If you've been watching "Independence Day" or "Armageddon" for the fourteenth time it might not take much imagination to come up with frightful ways Phoenix could dissemble into a nightmarish, nuclear hell, or how a 125-acre lake could suddenly disappear beneath the Sonoran Desert. But when we look at how real life works - outside movie theaters - it's not that scary at all. Phoenix is the second-safest city in the country when it comes to natural disasters, and no earthquake in recorded history has caused deaths or injuries anywhere in Arizona.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/arizona/history.php

If you want to worry be my guest, but it's pretty pointless. Fortunately scientists are making most of the policy calls.