Dust to Dust: a man-made Malthusian crisis [View all]

[GliderGuider]

Dust to Dust: a man-made Malthusian crisis

The Colorado study has caused a stir in the soil world. It was accompanied by a sobering analysis in Science by academics from South Africa's Witwatersrand University. They fear that we are repeating the mistakes of past civilisations, over-exploiting the land until it goes beyond the point of no return, and leads to a vicious circle of famine, and then social disintegration.

Once the top soil crosses a crucial threshold, the recovery rate plunges. Chemicals can keep crop yields high for a while but the complex ecology beneath is being abused further. Yields have already fallen 8pc across Africa as a whole. The paper calls for a complete change of course as the "only viable route to feeding the world and keeping it habitable."

Professor Robert Scholes, one of the authors, said there comes a point when terrified governments make a Faustian pact, sacrificing their future to stop their people starving today. "We're seeing a massive arc of deforestation in Africa," he said.

"We're running out of new agricultural frontiers and we don't have the freedom to make errors any more. We are using up our nutrient capital and face a looming food crisis over the next 30 to 40 years. There is a risk that we are going to paint ourselves into a corner. Famine is a very real possiblity," he said.

OK, things feel like they're getting serious now.