WashPost infographic on recent thefts of nuclear materials [View all]

[kristopher]

Last edited Fri Dec 13, 2013, 05:00 PM - Edit history (2)

A look at recent nuclear-material incidents
Nuclear material was stolen from a truck in Mexico this week before being recovered two days later. Such incidents are alarmingly frequent. More than 20 cases of theft or loss of nuclear material take place every year, according to the IAEA. Many are never publicly reported. These are selected cases from the past 10 years, based on reports tracked by the Nuclear Threat Initiative




http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/a-look-at-recent-nuclear-material-incidents/2013/12/05/c6f3edb6-5e17-11e3-be07-006c776266ed_graphic.html


From Harvard's Belfer Center

What nuclear weapons could terrorists use?
They could buy, steal, or construct a nuclear weapon.

What is the hardest part of making a nuclear bomb?
Acquiring fissile material

What fissile material is needed to make a nuclear bomb?
HEU or Pu

How difficult would it be for terrorists to get fissile materials?
Not hard enough
There are hundreds of locations holding nuclear weapons or weapons-usable material and no binding global standards for how well these weapons and materials should be secured. There are more than 130 research reactors with HEU, some of which are in developing and transitional countries.

Once nuclear material is acquired, could terrorists make a nuclear weapon?
Yes
U.S. Office of Technology Assessment (1977): "A small group of people, none of whom have ever had access to the classified literature, could design and build a crude nuclear explosive device... [O]nly modest machine-shop facilities that could be contracted for without arousing suspicion would be required."

Amount of HEU required to make a crude nuclear bomb: 25 kg

Global stockpile of HEU: 1,600,000 kg

Amount of Pu required to make a crude nuclear bomb: 8 kg

Global stockpile of separated Pu: 500,000 kg

Number of bombs that can be built with global stocks of fissile material:
More than 200,000

Bombs' worth of fissile material that has been stolen or lost:
More than 1
One hundred percent of "known" stolen or lost fissile material has been recovered. However, as the IAEA reported in 2009, "There are indications that the seized material was only a sample of larger quantities available for illegal purchase or at risk of theft."

Have terrorists acquired fissile material?
No known cases

Could terrorists steal or buy HEU or Pu?
Yes
In 1993, 20 bombs' worth of HEU was discovered in a poorly secured building in Kazakhstan. In 2006, Russian citizen Oleg Khinsagov was arrested in Georgia for carrying 100 grams of HEU and attempting to find a buyer for what he claimed were many additional kilograms. In 2007, two armed teams broke into South Africa's Pelindaba nuclear facility, a site where an estimated 30 weapons' worth of HEU is stored. They overcame a 10,000-volt security fence, entered without setting off an alarm, broke into the emergency control center, shot a worker, and escaped.

Number of incidents from 1993-2008 of theft or loss of nuclear or other radioactive materials reported to the IAEA by member states:
421

Number of confirmed incidents from 1993-2008 involving unauthorized possession of HEU or Pu:
18

Have terrorists ever stolen or built a nuclear weapon?
No known cases
However, they are trying to do so. In 1998, Osama bin Laden issued a statement, "The Nuclear Bomb of Islam," declaring that "It is the duty of Muslims to prepare as much force as possible to terrorize the enemies of God."

Estimated number of nuclear weapons sites in the world:
111

Number of countries in which these nuclear weapons are stored:
14

Could terrorists steal or buy a nuclear weapon?
Yes
The potential for a sale exists. Kim Jong-il sold something thousands of times larger than a bomb: a Yongbyon-style reactor capable of producing Pu from which Syria could have made nuclear weapons. There are 150-240 U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe. A 2008 internal U.S. Air Force investigation determined that "most" of the sites that store them do not meet U.S. security standards. In 2010, six anti-nuclear activists broke into a Belgian military base that stores 10-20 U.S. nuclear weapons and walked around for up to an hour.

Has a country ever lost a nuclear weapon?
Yes
At least 11 U.S. weapons have been lost. Russia denies that any of its nuclear weapons have gone missing, but at least four nuclear submarines with nuclear warheads sank and were never recovered.

How much did the smallest nuclear bomb ever produced weigh?
23 kg

Minimum weight of a nuclear backpack weapon like Russia's RA-155:
30 kg trong>

Number of minutes that it would take to detonate this bomb:
10
Yield of this bomb: 0.5 to 2 kilotons

Could terrorists target a nuclear reactor to cause a nuclear explosion?
No
There is no possibility of a nuclear explosion at a civilian reactor. However, a successful terrorist attack on a nuclear power plant could release a massive dose of radiation.

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/20057/nuclear_terrorism_fact_sheet.html