Toyota Unveils Zero-Emissions Hydrogen Fuel-Cell ‘Car Of The Future’ For Sale Next Year

[BlueStreak]

20. They wouldn't be doing this if the pricing didn't work with volume

This is not a gimmick to meet some arcane California law, as has been done in the past with some of the EV projects. Several car companies have made really big-time investments in fuel cell technology. Toyota is bringing this to market 2 years sooner than previously announced. Why?

I believe that indicates:

a) They really do believe this is an important development that wil grow into a substantial portion of the car production; and

b) therefore, they didn't want to fall 2 years behind Honda and Hyundai.

The projections in the article of 2030 are way off. The reason the dates have always been iffy is because the fuel cells were way off the mark economically. I have dealt with Toyota as a fleet buyer for a long time. They are always vague about everything. Toyota is uncharacteristically frank and direct this time. They are saying flat out that they have the economics solved on the fuel cell. Yes, they will charge an "early adopter's premium" for the first several years. Why shouldn't they? They have lots of R&D costs and they would like to recoup as much of that as possible. But they wouldn't have announced it this way if they weren't sure about the economics.

They don't have to get it down to the typical Camry range until there is enough hydrogen infrastructure to make that relevant, so they might be planning another 4 or 5 years to reach that point. They often talk about their product ambitions in terns of 2020. That's about right for a mainstream push.

I bet we will see an affordable, honest 300 mile range fuel cell car on the market before we see an affordable, honest 300 mile EV (meaning under $50,000 in today's dollars).