better than the mpg decrement that has so often been quoted of 35%.
I'm pretty cautious about predicting for "the long term". I am worried enough about tomorrow. Oil has been flirting with $100 (West Texas, NOrth Sea Brent with $110 a barrel) thanks to 1) the Arab Spring and 2) Iran nuclear program. Experts are now saying once we get to Memorial day gas could easily be at $4.00 a gallon. If (When?) Israel strikes Iran's nuclear facilities I think $4.00 gas will quickly become a fond memory.
Gas at $4.00 a gallon will take a good deal out of our meagre recovery. If it goes above that (depending on how far) we could see zero growth and increased Unemployment. These developments for the long term do not bode well for developing and deploying other more technically advanced, and more expensive, technologies such as electric cars. NOT good.
I have said before that we should be increasing methanol production (from natural gas) to be added to ethanol to further reduce our need for petroleum fuel. Of course, we are not going to do that. At least not until we have petroleum prices strangling our economy. Then we might do it.
Unfortuitous developments in the short term will dramatically affect what we will be able to do in the long term ---- unless we take such actions that can produce short term changes in our dependency on petroleum. (note in addition to adding methanol to the ethanol supply we should have been promoting the development of the Ethanol Enabled Direct Injection engine designed by three MIT scientists, which gets 30% better fuel economy (comparable to conventional hybrids) for about one fourth the cost.
Ethanol Boosting Systems
These steps might have saved the economy from the coming petroleum cost contraction (or at least minimized the damage) which will put off deployment of electric cars even further (you have to have quite a few people who have enough free money to buy electric cars to expand their use.).
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