Lying With Charts, Global Warming Edition

[Nederland]

56. I agree with your summary

Climate change is a very immature science at this point in time. I believe that in time we probably will be able to accurately predict what impacts certain changes will have on climate, but that time has not yet come. I don't believe that I was "complaining" when you said things are unpredictable, but I can see why you might see it that way. My intention was merely to point out that the position you hold seems at odds with the rest AGW community whose mantra is "the science is settled". Now that you have fully articulated what you think, I'm surprised to see that we agree a great deal on the subject. If I had to sum up my own position on the subject I would say two things.

1) We don't understand climate very well at this point in time.
2) Our current level of understanding has produced computer models that over predict warming.

This combination is what makes me say that there will not be as much warming as many people claim around here claim there will be. Why do I believe this? Right now, depending on what scenario you pick, AR4 IPCC models predict warming over the next 100 years to be anywhere from 1.4 to 5.0 degrees. When you add in the fact that the observed temperatures for the five years following the model runs have come in under the 1.4 degree line, I cannot come to any other conclusion. Is that a guess? Absolutely. However, it is the only guess that makes sense at this point in time. The bottom line is that the only data we have tells us that the computer models are over predicting temperature. To guess otherwise requires that you ignore that fact.

I know how many people respond to this, indeed I have heard it many times right here in this forum. They say: "You may be comfortable risking the welfare of the plant on a guess, but I am not. Better to be safe than sorry." This view only makes sense if the world has an infinite supply of talent and money to fix problems. We do not. The total sum of the planet's human resources available to solve problems is fixed. If you dedicate resources to try to address the climate change issue, you take resources away from something else. Given this, I fail to understand the wisdom of throwing billions of dollars at a problem that we do not yet fully understand.