My point, however, already considered all of that. The situation can be summed up in this way:
- There are some REEs that are valuable to the profitability of some designs.
- It isn't an industry wide issue and the industry would proceed apace if there were No REEs.
- The crux of the matter is that we entered/are/will in be a market induced shortage caused by a surge in demand that exceeded the capacity of the refining facilities that were in service.
- Just as supply/demand dynamics created a resource bottleneck, it will alleviate it.
- China's prior entry into that market led to price declines that caused the shut down of most of the rest of the REE refining facilities in the world.
- This put China (which was growing its wind industry for global competition) in the position of being able to throttle development of more competitive foreign technologies by limiting their access to the relevant REEs. It also led to a price spike in REEs that has prompted consideration of reopening refining facilities outside of China.
- The competitive edge afforded by REEs plus their shortage has already produced alternative approaches to achieving the same improvements that REEs can be used for.
- At no point in time, ever, was the progress of renewable energy writ large in any kind of jeopardy whatsoever.
- However, there was a flood of articles that tried to instill in public consciousness exactly the idea that wind and solar can't meet global energy demand because there was some sort of rare material required.
You, inadvertently I'm sure, were participating in that when you included it as a caveat about wind and solar:
"Rare earth metals creates another interesting dynamic, politically and economically. Recycling will only go so far. For solar and wind to carry the bulk of energy transformation, at projected demand, the acquisition of rare earth metals will certainly be tested."
You can certainly reframe that by pointing to the existence of a broader discussion on the topic, but it's pretty evident by the juxtaposition of remark to the content of the OP that you were expressing a belief about the inadequacy of wind and solar and were not making a comment on the above described market dynamics of rare earth elements.
The reason you possess such a belief is almost certainly the result of the efforts of the nuclear industry's crusade against renewable energy because they are they group that has been promoting that specific misconception.
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