Environment & Energy
In reply to the discussion: Lying With Charts, Global Warming Edition [View all]Nederland
(9,979 posts)But again, its the rate of warming that the doomers claim will occur that I am challenging. We can argue back and forth about what the proper way to calculate CI is, but one fact is undeniable. The observed temperatures have been below the ensemble line ever since the models were released. Since the A1B ensemble line is a relatively modest one that only predicts around 2.7 degrees of warming, some of which has already occurred, I fail to see why people around here still talk about seeing 5 or 6 degrees of warming this century. Its almost like they want it to happen. Could temperatures increase so they are back above the line? Absolutely. But until that happens I'm going to state what should be obvious: claims of 5 or 6 degrees of warming are not supported by the data. If I had to bet I'd say that the same thing that happened to Hansen's predictions will happen to the AR4 predictions: they will slowly but surely turn out to be too high.