Last edited Thu Apr 10, 2014, 11:07 AM - Edit history (2)
About 60% of the world's end-use energy is from fossil fuels that are used in applications that can't readily be substituted by electricity (transportation, space heating, industrial uses).
This means that even if we magically switched all possible end-use energy from fossil fuels to to low-carbon electricity today, we would still be generating 15 gigatonnes of CO2 annually. That's the same amount as in 1970, when we were already in trouble.
Of course we won't do that. The world's need for energy to sustain economic output is simply too crucial to permit the abandonment of fossil fuels in the short term. That means that low-carbon electricity will be added to fossil-fuel electricity for some period of time, rather than displacing it. Once the gradual abandonment of fossil-fuel electricity becomes both economically and politically practical on a global scale (say by 2040), we could be burning twice the amount fossil fuels we do today.
It's time to come to terms with the idea that CO2 levels in the atmosphere could double before we do anything significant about slowing their growth. Our desperate desire to maintain the world's economy, capital infrastructure and standards of living mandate the consumption of ever-increasing amounts of energy, much of which will inevitably come from fossil fuels over the short and medium term.
Despite the best efforts of the renewable power industry, 500 pm CO2 seems entirely probable by 2050 - even without counting other GHGs, let alone methane feedbacks. CO2e levels of 600 ppm are likely when other GHGs are included, and methane feedbacks could add another 100 to 200 ppmv equivalent. We could be blowing over 750 ppmv of CO2e within 35 years.
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