Dennis Meadows: Collapse inevitable 2015-2020

[Starboard Tack]

22. An interesting "short paper", that basically says "shit happens" regardless system safety measures.

The Titanic was having a wonderful time before she hit the iceberg, and the band played on as she sank.

The more complex the system, the more likely a failure will occur and the more redundancy is needed. Living on the hook on a sailboat, this is a huge part of my life. No matter what redundancy measures one installs, no matter how diligent one is with maintenance, no matter how good a sailor one is and how well informed as to weather and sea conditions, shit can and will still happen. And when it does, it invariably comes in threes.

So, I think the key is to keep things as simple as possible, rather than bolstering existing systems with even more systems. More shit to go wrong. I recently spent some time traveling through rural Mexico. I stayed with subsistence farmers in Oaxaca and Chiapas and Campeche, who will hardly feel a blip if and when the global economy collapses. Their redundancy consists of calves, eggs and seedlings. They are rich, yet have no money.