SHALE REVOLUTION: Forecasters Say The US Could Become Energy Independent In 20 Years

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4. Others report Frack oil will peak this year and go into terminal decline thereafter.

Some reports that Shale Oil is expected to peak in 2017:

http://www.postcarbon.org/drill-baby-drill/es

Other say Shale Oil is a Bubble:

http://www.desmogblog.com/2013/02/19/fracking-wall-street-housing-bubble

The people making the predictions are being attack as over simplifying oil production, but that is the only way they predictions can be attacked for they agree production will increase over the next two to four years, but at about that time period is when production from new wells will fail to match the drop in production of older wells.



http://peakoilbarrel.com/will-us-light-tight-oil-save-world/

Remember for Shale Oil to be profitable, the price of oil MUST exceed $80 a barrel:

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-10-30/the-peak-oil-crisis-the-shale-oil-bubble

There is 42 gallon in a Barrel of oil, thus $1.94 a gallon is the lowest the price of Gasoline can get, and that is NOT including the cost of refining or shipping the oil (nor taxes on Gasoline). While the Federal tax on Gasoline is 18.4 Cents a gallon, the average tax (including the Federal Tax) is 49.5 Cents a gallon.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_taxes_in_the_United_States

Today, the "average" Crude Gasoline costs about $2.55 a gallon, and sells for $3.90 a gallon", That is a difference, of $1.35 a gallon, of which only 49.5 Cents represents taxes:

http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/gasoline/margins/

When it comes to ACTUAL Shale oil production, we are talking of tow fields, one in Texas, the other in North Dakota. The other fields that were to duplicate those fields have all turned out to be busts (most down graded up to 95% less oil then had been claimed).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/a-national-drilling-boom-but-a-two-state-oil-boom/

I have read recently (I can NOT find the site right now) that the number of new wells being drilled in both the Texas and North Dakota shale oil fields are barely covering what is going dry. If that is the case, then both have peaked and will start to decline. Given the other Shale Oil Fields are NOT that large (most have been down graded to to 95%), the US may peak its oil production this year and go back into decline.