Energetic Limits to Economic Growth [View all]

[GliderGuider]

More scientists are picking up on this theme.

Energetic Limits to Economic Growth

Authors:

James H. Brown ([e-mail]) is a distinguished professor at the University of New Mexico and external faculty of the Santa Fe Institute. William R. Burnside, William C. Dunn, Jordan G. Okie, and Wenyun Zuo are PhD candidates in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico. Ana D. Davidson is a postdoctoral researcher at the National University of Mexico and adjunct professor of biology at the University of New Mexico. John P. DeLong is a postdoctoral associate at Yale University in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. Marcus J. Hamilton is an archaeological anthropologist at the University of New Mexico and the Santa Fe Institute. Norman Mercado-Silva is a research specialist with the School of Natural Resources and the Environment, Arizona Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, at the University of Arizona, in Tucson. Jeffrey C. Nekola is an ecologist at the University of New Mexico. William H. Woodruff is a scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory and external faculty at the Santa Fe Institute.

Abstract:

The human population and economy have grown exponentially and now have impacts on climate, ecosystem processes, and biodiversity far exceeding those of any other species. Like all organisms, humans are subject to natural laws and are limited by energy and other resources. In this article, we use a macroecological approach to integrate perspectives of physics, ecology, and economics with an analysis of extensive global data to show how energy imposes fundamental constraints on economic growth and development. We demonstrate a positive scaling relationship between per capita energy use and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) both across nations and within nations over time. Other indicators of socioeconomic status and ecological impact are correlated with energy use and GDP. We estimate global energy consumption for alternative future scenarios of population growth and standards of living. Large amounts of energy will be required to fuel economic growth, increase standards of living, and lift developing nations out of poverty.



Figure 1. The relationship between per capita energy use and per capita gross domestic product (GDP; in US dollars) of countries, plotted on logarithmic axes, from 1980 to 2003. Note that the slope or exponent, 0.76 (95% confidence interval = 0.69–0.82), is close to three-quarters, which is the canonical value of the exponent for the scaling of metabolic rate with body mass in animals. If per capita GDP is taken as the size of an average individual's economy and per capita energy use as the rate of energy consumption required to support that economy, this relationship may not be coincidental. Total per capita energy consumption is calculated as the caloric intake of humans (about 130 watts) plus the energy derived from all other sources, including fossil fuels and renewables. The thin colored lines show trends for individual countries from 1980 to 2003. The thick black line is a regression model fit to the mean values for each nation during this period. GDP data are from the World Resources Institute (http://earthtrends.wri.org/index.php). Total energy consumption data are calculated from the sum of energy consumption from eating (data from the World Resources Institute) plus all other sources of energy consumed for other purposes such as utilities, manufacturing, and transportation. Source: Data are from the International Energy Agency at www.iea.org/stats/index.asp.

Conclusions:

Our explicitly macroecological and metabolic approach uses new data and analyses to provide quantitative, mechanistic, and practically relevant insights into energetic limits on economic growth. We hope the evidence and interpretations presented here will call the attention of scientists, policymakers, world leaders, and the public to the central but largely underappreciated role of energetic limits to economic growth.

See also Tim Garrett's related work at http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~tgarrett/Economics/Economics.html