Myth #3, page 11, 2nd paragraph: “Using Japanese round numbers from Toyota, 88% of oil at the wellhead ends up as gasoline in your tank, and then 16% of that gasoline energy reaches the wheels of your typical modern car, so the well-to-wheels efficiency is 14%. A gasoline-fueled hybrid-electric car like the 2002 Toyota Prius nearly doubles the gasoline-to-wheels efficiency from 16% to 30% and the overall well-to-wheels efficiency from 14% to 26%. But locally reforming natural gas can deliver 70% of the gas’s wellhead energy into the car’s compressed-hydrogen tank. That “meager” conversion efficiency is then more than offset by an advanced fuel-cell drive system’s superior 60% efficiency in converting that hydrogen energy into traction, for an overall well-to wheels efficiency of 42%. That’s three times higher than the normal gasoline-engine car’s, or 1.5 times higher than the gasoline-hybrid-electric car’s. This helps explain why most automakers see today’s gasoline-hybrid cars as a stepping-stone to their ultimate goal — direct-hydrogen fuel-cell cars."
This is why the original premise of “2-3 times higher efficiency” was questioned earlier; it forms the basis of all ensuing conclusions. If we agree that a high-compression HEV will achieve the same overall efficiency as an FCV, then everything turns around: reforming natural gas into hydrogen to be used with an FCV wastes about 20% more fuel than would be the case of running the methane directly into a high compression HEV. The real point of this observation is why Mr. Lovins repeatedly insists on making the comparison between an FCV and a non-hybrid (conventional engine power train) in his analysis; it is logically irrelevant for the reasons stated earlier; i.e., any comparisons must be made relative to the most efficient existing power train—high-compression HEVs.—since this will be the competing force that drives the decision as to what system we eventually adopt (HEV vs. FCV).
He goes on to explain “why most automakers see today’s gasoline-hybrid car’s as a stepping-stone to their ultimate goal—direct hydrogen fuel-cell cars.” I have talked with several auto manufactures; they have given me very different and very intelligent reasons why they’re interested in hybrids: hybrid technology can operate on a variety of fuels; the current liquid and gaseous fuel infrastructure is perfectly compatible with these cars and finally, they are the test-bed for improvements in battery technology should such developments occur (I believe this is inevitable). If anything, I believe it is safe to say that hybrid technology will usher in an era of “Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles” (PHEVs: cars that can go some reasonable distance on electricity alone). This will require no technical breakthrough; the Toyota Prius is an example of one step in this inevitable evolutionary chain.
Pursuing hybrid technology is a sensible and secure plan; it involves virtually no change to our present infrastructure and allows for the possibility of a completely renewably-based system of fuels. Redundancy is the key word here and the ability to use electricity, alcohols, propane, methane, butane, gasoline and even hydrogen makes this choice far less problematic than the fuel-cell powered car.
http://www.oilcrisis.com/hydrogen/crea.htm
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