More than 68% of New European Electricity Capacity Came From Wind and Solar in 2011

[joshcryer]

81. Please stop insulting me, I showed graphs with regards to natural gas.

I showed you how we're exporting fossil fuels at increasing rates.

I showed you lots of stuff, none of which you refuted to any extent whatsoever. You quoted a Lovins' article that doesn't get into actual substance, which pipe dreams and ignores political and economic reality.

When renewables are less expensive than fossil fuels, absolutely, fossil fuels will be left in the ground. Renewables are less expensive than fossil fuels, here, due in large part to regulations. By forcing the externalized cost of fossil fuels, coal, for example, becomes more expensive. States have led the charge in this regard, however, with each one controlling air standards. Now, go look at a developing country that just wants to power its society, and doesn't care so much about these kinds of air standards. What happens then? I assure you that coal will still be cheaper than renewables, even with renewable costs going down. They must go down much lower than "what we can afford." The cost of renewables must go down to a level that the developing world can afford.

Now, you're a coal company selling coal, and all of the coal plants are being shut down in the United States. You own the mineral rights, you have thousands of workers, what is in your interests? Well, two things can happen. The US could come to you, buy your company, and retrain your workers to work on renewables (a really cool idea, but politically not happening). Or, you can say, "Hey, let's sell our coal to the developing world, they'll use it." The latter scenario is far more likely, because it's also in the US's interests to have a trade partner who relies on US resources (for geopolitical reasons, you want them to build the coal plants, that's just how reality works).