Environment & Energy

LouisvilleDem

(303 posts)

16. Those numbers are not supported by the evidence

Fri Jul 24, 2015, 09:36 AM

Jul 2015

I don't care how many references Hansen's paper has, unless we see an enormous change in sea level rise in the next few years, all that paper will prove to be is wild speculation. Just do the math. A rise of 3 meters in the next 40 years means a rise of 7.5cm every year from then until now. Given that sea levels are currently rising at around 3.5mm a year, Hansen is predicting a 20x increase in what we are currently observing. The bottom line here is that extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. If we see a massive increase in sea level rise I will have no problem admitting I was wrong, but I don't think it is unreasonable to ask to wait one or two years to see if Hansen's predictions start to pan out.

The question is, if we fail to see the type of increases you've described, will you admit you were wrong?

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

20 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

When the End of Human Civilization Is Your Day Job [View all] Electric Monk Jul 2015 OP

It is as bad as many have suspected. Actual death threats made! More from OP's link: Mnemosyne Jul 2015 #1

"all amplified by a relentless propaganda campaign nakedly financed by the fossil-fuel companies." RiverLover Jul 2015 #4

Didn't we just have this article posted sue4e3 Jul 2015 #2

Read the article. RiverLover Jul 2015 #5

I did, twice now sue4e3 Jul 2015 #6

Sad...Its about how scientists aren't supposed to convey exactly how dire it is. Jeesh. RiverLover Jul 2015 #7

If that's how you feel sue4e3 Jul 2015 #8

Its ok you don't get this isn't regurgitating. Its insight into what scientists deal with, RiverLover Jul 2015 #9

Sobering article... truebrit71 Jul 2015 #3

Gavin Schmidt is not in denial LouisvilleDem Jul 2015 #10

"You don't have to close down all the coal-powered stations tomorrow. You can transition." truebrit71 Jul 2015 #11

He isn't denying that 100 million people have to move LouisvilleDem Jul 2015 #12

But it's not going to be 100 million people over 50 years.... truebrit71 Jul 2015 #13

How many will it be then? LouisvilleDem Jul 2015 #14

According to this study, it looks like over 200 million would be displaced by a 3-meter rise GliderGuider Jul 2015 #15

Those numbers are not supported by the evidence LouisvilleDem Jul 2015 #16

Remember the shape of an exponential curve? GliderGuider Jul 2015 #17

It doesn't make enough of a difference LouisvilleDem Jul 2015 #18

What the paper says: GliderGuider Jul 2015 #19

Matter of time, we are fucked AuntPatsy Jul 2015 #20