Environment & Energy

LouisvilleDem

(303 posts)

18. It doesn't make enough of a difference

Fri Jul 24, 2015, 09:02 PM

Jul 2015

The paper indicates that Hansen believes that ice melt is doubling every 10-40 years. Let's take the low end (most rapid doubling) of 10 years and figure out where we end up. Sea level increases are currently at 3.5mm per year. A doubling every 10 years brings us to 7mm in 10 years, 14mm in 20 years, 28mm in 30 years, and 56mm in 40 years. In other words, even with the most extreme case of exponential growth presented in the paper you can't get even close to a growth rate sufficient to get you to 3 meters of rise in 40 years.

On edit: If you do the calculations, you'll see that in order to reach a total of 3m in 40 years we would have to see a doubling of sea level rise about every 5 years. Given that fact, will you be willing to say you were wrong if the next two or three years don't put us on track to do that?

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When the End of Human Civilization Is Your Day Job [View all] Electric Monk Jul 2015 OP

It is as bad as many have suspected. Actual death threats made! More from OP's link: Mnemosyne Jul 2015 #1

"all amplified by a relentless propaganda campaign nakedly financed by the fossil-fuel companies." RiverLover Jul 2015 #4

Didn't we just have this article posted sue4e3 Jul 2015 #2

Read the article. RiverLover Jul 2015 #5

I did, twice now sue4e3 Jul 2015 #6

Sad...Its about how scientists aren't supposed to convey exactly how dire it is. Jeesh. RiverLover Jul 2015 #7

If that's how you feel sue4e3 Jul 2015 #8

Its ok you don't get this isn't regurgitating. Its insight into what scientists deal with, RiverLover Jul 2015 #9

Sobering article... truebrit71 Jul 2015 #3

Gavin Schmidt is not in denial LouisvilleDem Jul 2015 #10

"You don't have to close down all the coal-powered stations tomorrow. You can transition." truebrit71 Jul 2015 #11

He isn't denying that 100 million people have to move LouisvilleDem Jul 2015 #12

But it's not going to be 100 million people over 50 years.... truebrit71 Jul 2015 #13

How many will it be then? LouisvilleDem Jul 2015 #14

According to this study, it looks like over 200 million would be displaced by a 3-meter rise GliderGuider Jul 2015 #15

Those numbers are not supported by the evidence LouisvilleDem Jul 2015 #16

Remember the shape of an exponential curve? GliderGuider Jul 2015 #17

It doesn't make enough of a difference LouisvilleDem Jul 2015 #18

What the paper says: GliderGuider Jul 2015 #19

Matter of time, we are fucked AuntPatsy Jul 2015 #20