Sustaining the Wind, Part I...

[kristopher]

19. Still making shit up, eh?

New NREL Data Suggests Wind Could Replace Coal as Nation’s Primary Generation Source
The new report finds wind is poised to become a dominant and possibly the primary source of electricity in the U.S.
Clayton Handleman
August 13, 2015


The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recently released data showing that the capacity factor (CF) for wind power can reach 65 percent -- comparable to the CF of fossil-fuel-based generation.

While the headlines aren’t as sexy as Tesla’s "Ludicrous mode," the transformative implications for climate change dwarf Elon Musk’s latest accomplishment. Increasing a generator’s CF can increase its value in a variety of ways, including: reduced cost of energy, improved transmission-line utilization, and often, reducing stress on the grid by providing more power at times of peak demand. It will also likely reduce the amount of storage and natural gas needed to manage the grid under scenarios of high renewables penetration. Implicitly, NREL’s new report positions wind to become a dominant and possibly the primary source of electricity in the U.S.

Figure 1: Areas of the U.S. With Various Gross Capacity Factors for Differing Wind Technologies

Wind Potential Chart US 072015

Source: NREL

Note: The curve to the left shows the historical data, the middle (red) curve shows the data for state-of-the-art turbines, and the blue shows the anticipated performance of "near-future" turbines.

CF is the ratio of a generator’s average power output over a year to its nameplate rating. A CF of 100 percent would indicate that the generation source was always on and operating at its full rated power. Simply stated, a higher capacity factor means a generator of a given size will produce more energy over the year. CF sets a lower bound on the amount of time that a generator operates. If a generator is not operating at its full nameplate rating all the time, then it will produce power for a percentage of time that exceeds its CF.

With little fanfare, NREL released updated data showing that, with current technology, wind turbines could generate more than enough energy at 55 percent CF to power the entire U.S. However, the real stunner is that near-future turbine technology (i.e., 140-meter towers) could boost that to 65 percent CF. With the current national average wind CF (see page 34) at about 33 percent, this represents a near doubling. According to NREL, using current technology and siting it in prime locations, wind power CF can already exceed that of natural gas. Using "near-future" technology, wind power’s CF will exceed the CFs of both coal (61 percent) and natural gas (48 percent) achieved nationwide in recent years....

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/new-nrel-data-suggests-wind-could-replace-coal-as-nations-primary-generatio?utm_source=Daily&utm_medium=Headline&utm_campaign=GTMDaily