Renewable Energy Is Trouncing Fossil Fuels

[kristopher]

5. That is a superficial view.

The standard way stats are gathered is by capacity. From that, there are a lot of factors besides maximum potential capacity factor that determine what trouncing is going on.

For example, natural gas is increasing for 4 reasons:
1) presently it is relatively inexpensive to install and operate.
2) it produces fewer CO2e emissions than coal.
3) it is able to ramp up and down quickly.
4) the ramping up and down provides a flexibility the grid values highly as a part of a renewable grid.

Together with renewables those 4 factors have displaced further development in coal (and most like nuclear also).

Where your observation becomes superficial is the story these numbers tell about future growth. The investment in natural gas, together with the expected rather short duration of current low natural gas prices, compliments continued and accelerating increases in renewable capacity - but not natural gas.
As renewables increase it will start hitting a point where they start curtailing market access for natural gas. The difference between the coal (and nuclear plants) is that instead of becoming less profitable as this happens, the natural gas plants reactive ability will find market support. That support will enable them to stay in business even as they produce less and less electricity.