If anyone expects the refugee exodus from the Turkish shores into Europe to end this summer, they should think again. While the refugee crisis in Europe has had a surprisingly re-invigorating effect on the Turkish-European ties, and produced a well-defined Joint Action Plan in November 2015, the inflow of those fleeing warzones and poverty in the Muslim world will likely continue – drop but continue-well into 2016.
And that is not due to unwillingness on the part of Turkey or the European Union to stem the flow of migrants into Europe. Despite an increasingly shrill rhetoric on Western attitudes towards refugees, Turkish leaders indicate that they intend to live up to their end of the bargain. For President Tayyip Erdoğan and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) the refugee issue meant a serendipitous return into the European community – not only offering financial incentives to relieve Turkey’s heavy burden but also promising to “re-energize” the accession process. Coming after a period of relative international loneliness and a sense of desperation regarding the course of events in Syria, this is very welcome. While much criticised by Turkey’s pro-European intelligentsia for its disregard for Turkey’s deteriorating human rights record, the deal offers Erdoğan an irresistible spot - and a new legitimacy - at the European table.
But there are other reasons - technical and political - to be less hopeful about halting the refugee inflow. For starters, the overall premise of the Joint Action Plan between Turkey and the European Union is not to put a complete stop, with the understanding that it is not attainable, but to maximise the number of refugees staying in Turkey, support them, and create an “orderly” - yet diminished - flow of refugees into Europe. In addition to the €3 billion in aid to be delivered to Turkey, the ultimate deal will also involve a controlled resettlement of refugees into Europe in more modest numbers than the current flow.
http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_turkeys_end_of_the_refugee_bargain
= new reply since forum marked as read